Good Morning Sir

The further we move forward, the harder it is for me to remember “what it was like when Trump was President the first time.” It seems we were quite attached to his “tweets,” but we weren’t nearly as dependent as we are today. Observing the markets over the past 24 hours, I can only note the drop in volume and the sudden disappearance of that deep interest we once had in the markets. Either people have stepped to the sidelines, waiting for the next tariff-related story, or last week’s frenzy is over and we’re slipping back into our macro routine until the next crisis comes along. Lying in Wait But to be honest, it feels more like we’re lying in wait, ready to either sell and short everything or to buy it all back and make FOMO our motto again. It seems unlikely that Trump will just stop and let time pass — he needs to be in the spotlight, and he desperately needs a concrete result so he can tell the press: “See, I told you so!”Still, yesterday’s session was sad and dreadfully boring, with volumes so low it felt like the weekend had already begun. Then again, technically, tomorrow is Friday since the week ends early in the U.S. But just because it was quiet and Trump didn’t say or do anything major doesn’t mean nothing happened. We still had to deal with the car sector, as the President had shown a desire to ease restrictions there. The sector reacted well, especially in Europe, where most automakers gained 2%, although there was still a sense of caution — investors know Trump can change his mind in a heartbeat.So, the European markets had a fairly positive session, but with pathetic volumes that suggested everyone was on the defensive. In the end, if we remove Trump from the equation, only two topics remained: LVMH’s disappointment, losing its spot as the largest market cap in France, overtaken by Hermès, which apparently isn’t feeling the same industry stress as its rival. Experts explained yesterday that while LVMH is luxury, Hermès is “more luxury than LVMH.” So since Hermès is more exclusive, people with more money haven’t yet cut back on their lifestyle.Bottom line: LVMH fell 7%, and to think that just a year ago people would’ve killed to buy it at €880… It’s yet another reminder of how little we actually understand in finance and in valuing a company. The second issue that rattled European investors was the ECB.To put it simply, while Madame Christine was still considering not cutting rates a few weeks ago — right after the March meeting — yesterday it became clear the ECB will cut rates again this week. The Trump method is weighing too heavily on European growth, which is already teetering on the edge, and the ECB can’t afford not to act — especially since inflationary pressures are no longer a concern. France even reported a CPI drop to 2.2% yesterday.If even Bayrou — with the blood pressure of a sloth — can bring inflation down, anyone can, and inflation clearly isn’t a problem anymore.So yes, the ECB will cut rates, but its messaging will remain “less dovish” while still keeping every option on the table — economic visibility in the Trump era is about as clear as a foggy London morning in October. Trump and the Metals While Europe mourned Bernard Arnault’s decline, welcomed rate cuts, and wondered if Trump could be trusted on the auto front, the U.S. President had already moved on.Since yesterday — and into this morning’s open — his main focus has been tariffs on rare earth metals. Trump just launched a new offensive: an investigation into potential tariffs on all critical minerals imports. The goal? Reduce U.S. dependence on China, which remains the dominant force in strategic metals (rare earths, cobalt, nickel, uranium…). In case you’re wondering: what’s a critical metal? It’s a metal the modern economy can’t live without but that no one really produces domestically.We need them for smartphones, EVs, fighter jets to defend against Putin, and for charging Teslas… but we usually have to get them from someone else — and often, that someone is China. A metal is considered “critical” if it meets two conditions: It’s essential to strategic sectors (defense, energy, electronics, green transition, etc.). It’s high-risk: either because very little is produced, or supply depends on unstable or uncooperative countries (like Russia or China). Washington is finally waking up to the fact that its economy runs on materials it doesn’t control. The causes? Massive industrial lag, fragile supply chains, and just one rare earth mine on U.S. soil. Meanwhile, Beijing controls most of the world’s refining and is already retaliating by restricting exports.America’s realizing — a bit late — that it let vital resources slip away… and now Trump wants to impose tariffs to claw back lost ground. This marks another stage in his war with China. Trump also offered China the chance to “step up” with proposals to resolve the conflict. Suddenly, he seems eager to extend an olive branch — but the problem? Xi doesn’t seem interested… for now.This new move on critical metals did move mining stocks a bit, and they’re still active in Australia this morning. But truthfully, it hasn’t had much impact on the overall market.U.S. indices closed slightly down yesterday, as if we wanted to push higher, but something was holding us back. Fear, most likely — fear of another Trump tariff misstep. Nvidia’s Backlash Right now, nothing moves in the U.S. without being filtered through the lens of potential Trump impact. Want proof? Just look at what happened to semiconductors after the market closed yesterday.NVIDIA announced a $5.5 billion impairment charge. Why?Because they had recently developed chips called H20 — specifically designed to circumvent Biden’s restrictions on China. But now, those chips require an export license… and OF COURSE, Washington has no intention of granting it.Result: unsold inventory, canceled orders, and obsolete stock. China still

Luxury Lives Matter

After the week we just lived through, it’s understandable that we need to take a breather and not get too excited. Yet the problems remain the same, and the doubts regarding tariffs are still ever-present. The temporary gift Trump gave to all electronics and their components was the session’s “driver,” but to be honest, while Europe benefitted, it was less striking in the US. You can tell that no one “really” believes in it, and Apple, which was supposed to be the “big winner” from the weekend’s news, only ended up 2.2% higher after opening with a +7%. No one’s buying into it, and we’re expecting a backlash. Two days in a rowBut hey, we’re not going to complain — it can’t go up 10% every day, and the US indices still posted their second consecutive day of gains. That hadn’t happened in a while. So let’s not get carried away and start saying a trend is forming, but let’s just say that “for now,” it’s A BIT CALMER than what we experienced last week. At the same time, it would’ve been hard to imagine worse — especially on a Monday — but the week’s not over yet, even if it will be shortened by Good Friday. In any case, we’re still living in the same world, and even if there are a few more corporate updates—ones that manage to break through the flood of statements from Trump and his team—the overall obsession remains tariffs. Let’s not kid ourselves. Yesterday, the American President again expressed his intention to find a solution to “relieve” the tariffs imposed on car manufacturers. And even if his objective wasn’t very clear in substance or form, it at least gave some breathing room to companies like GM or Stellantis — even if, again, the new moratorium Trump wants to announce for the sector is very unclear. It feels like we’re so desperate for good news or even just a little clarity in this shitty geopolitical environment (sorry, couldn’t find a synonym) that we’re willing to believe or get excited over anything. The mood was good, but nothing moreTo put it simply, the markets ended higher because of the electronics announcement that came over the weekend, but right after the announcement, Trump and Lutnick were quick to say we shouldn’t celebrate too soon. So the market found it hard to get fully motivated, knowing that a 180-degree reversal could come in the next few days. Hence, the performance was average at best, and overall, lacked enthusiasm. As the title said: it was too quiet. Europeans, on the other hand, were more motivated than the Americans — as if they were enjoying a quiet Monday with no major breaking news to catch up on last week’s performance. So, while we wait for the next batch of announcements from the “Trump Team” — which will surely hit us in the face before the Easter egg hunt — market players are acting “as if” none of it concerns them and, for now, trying to get back to normal life. Focus then shifted to Goldman Sachs’ figures. And yes, I know — we usually don’t care much about bank earnings. Even though they’re kind of the “barometer” for the beginning of earnings season, we generally know they don’t mean much. That’s because, if we’re being honest about analyst expectations, there’s no worse scenario than one banker analyzing another banker’s performance. Usually, they’re off the mark in many sectors, but when it comes to banks, it’s often completely out of touch. It’s like no one’s ever managed to read a bank balance sheet without having a seizure by page eight, and since then, after so many ER visits, the analysts covering the banking sector just throw darts at the wall to set expectations. It’s statistically safer. So Goldman Sachs ? The good news is that the sector’s been so beaten down since people began to realize that Trumponomics would bring back inflation, a recession, locusts, and a zombie apocalypse, that expectations were low. As a result, the queen of investment banks — nicknamed “the vampire squid” for years thanks to a Rolling Stone article — reported numbers well above expectations. Of course, when you expect nothing based on almost nothing, it’s hard to miss the quarter. The “BANK BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS EXPERTS” were expecting $12.35 per share, and it came out at $14.12. The quarterly profit hit $4.74 billion, well above expectations. Last year, during the same period, profit was $4.13 billion. The bank also announced a share buyback program of up to $40 billion, and during the press conference, the CEO said recession risks are increasing due to tariffs and that the US economy is at risk, but that THEY are confident in themselves. It must be said that trading revenues for the first three months of the year were over $4.2 billion. So when people talk about volatility, at Goldman they say: Long may it last!!! Numbers, numbers and more numbersIt wasn’t just Goldman reporting yesterday – LVMH also had something to say. And the result? Not exactly mind-blowing, although there’s still plenty of hope for the future. Bernard Arnault had a bit of a rough patch in Q1 – but let’s be clear, he can still afford a €100 million townhouse in central Paris (and not in the sticks), with enough cash left to pick up one or two Ektorp sofas from Ikea. Now that we’re all reassured about Bernard’s standard of living, let’s note that sales were down 2%, at €20.3 billion. Nothing dramatic, but the real issue is in the US – a key market for them – AND OBVIOUSLY it’s due to Uncle Donald’s lovely tariffs. The group says it’s staying calm, confident… but also on guard, because the whole thing kind of smells like a highway rest stop toilet in July. CFO Cécile Cabanis is hoping the 90-day truce will allow for some negotiation, but the real message is: “we’re crossing our fingers,

Bluff Street

Just as the week was barely over, we almost immediately got what looked like some good weekend news: the White House announced that smartphones, laptops, integrated circuits, transistors, semiconductor storage devices, and machines used for semiconductor manufacturing would be exempt from certain tariffs. It felt a bit like Tim Cook might’ve made a few calls and started looking into relocating Apple to a slightly more cooperative country. People were already thinking the week would kick off with a bang… but, of course, it’s not that simple. Quite the opposite, in fact. Turn the other cheek The joy was short-lived — because clearly, it’s not that simple, and things actually seem to be getting more complicated (especially in terms of uncertainty — something the market absolutely HATES, as a reminder). Shortly afterward, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified that these products would be subject to separate tariffs in the coming months. And President Donald Trump added fuel to the fire on social media, stating that there were no tariff exceptions and that everyone would be hit, plain and simple. If we go by weekend signals, markets should have opened sharply higher — but the closer we get to the open, the less obvious that becomes. At times, it even seems like we might open lower, simply because investors are fed up with being pulled in every direction in a state of total confusion, unable to trust anyone, all amid the most absolute uncertainty. A Complicated Week Before diving into this week’s agenda, there’s no need to revisit last week in detail — but it’s worth reminding that nothing has been resolved, and volatility seems to be settling in for the long haul. Market participants are practically paralyzed by the mere thought of Trump tweeting something new, something that could ONCE AGAIN completely reshape the market landscape. No need to rehash the whole of last week, but since we could barely manage two consecutive sessions moving in the same direction, and almost every day had swings of more than 2% — up or down — there’s not much more to analyze: the market is totally lost, and nobody is able to take a step back and make rational decisions anymore. Let’s be honest: Trump’s management style isn’t exactly easy to handle, and drawing any kind of solid conclusion from it is a fool’s errand — technically, everything changes every 24 hours. With new updates on tariffs followed by sudden 180-degree reversals on announcements made just 72 hours prior, it’s hard to know what the President is running on, but it must be seriously potent stuff. In any case, I’m not risking much by saying that this week is likely to be spectacular again — and that words like confusion, uncertainty, and complete mess will be featured heavily in the media over the next few days. The Return of the FED Yes, uncertainty will be with us once again. Because alongside Trump’s economic and political twists and turns, the market will also face its first week of quarterly earnings reports, some economic figures — which frankly don’t matter much anymore, as we saw with last week’s CPI and PPI data — and, on top of all that, we’ll hear from Jerome Powell. He might either save our skins or drive a stake through our hearts while hurling cloves of garlic to make sure we don’t get back up. Indeed, the Fed Chair’s statements will be watched closely, and the slightest hint that the Fed might align itself with Trump’s desires could give financial analysts plenty more material to work into their forecasts — especially as they try to determine whether the odds of a recession are increasing. As for quarterly results, there’s some heavy-hitters lined up. Goldman Sachs will lead the charge, and things should go well — especially since the sector performed better than expected last Friday. Over the weekend, Goldman even raised its gold target from $3,300 to $3,700, warning that “in case of serious market risk and worry,” gold could even spike to $4,500. The analyst then went on to make the weather forecast for the New York region: possibly rain or snow, unless the wind dies down and the weather shifts north — in which case we might get sunshine with temperatures ranging between -5 and +42 degrees. Anyway… In addition to Goldman Sachs, we’ll get results from Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, ASML, and TSMC. There will be others, but these ones matter. Market Expectations Looking at current market expectations — which have been revised to rock-bottom levels — it’s likely that downside surprises will be few and far between. But the real risk lies in management comments and future outlooks. Given the current climate, any cautious projection — or worse, any statement suggesting that the rest of the year will be tough “given the current geopolitical and trade environment” — could cost companies an arm and a leg. We’ll talk more about that when the time comes. One thing is certain: this week will begin under the sign of tariffs, just like the past few weeks. One more thing is guaranteed: market stress isn’t going away any time soon. The many erratic and unclear statements from U.S. authorities will continue to destabilize not just the markets, but also investors and consumers. Until things are clearly defined, it will be extremely difficult to find any real stability — and even harder to rebuild trust. Bipolar Reflection But if we were to take a moment and lay things (a bit) flat at the start of the week, it’s worth noting that, according to analysts (who change their minds every three days, let’s remember), what Trump is currently doing could either trigger a minor cramp in American growth… or a full-on cardiac arrest. In the best-case scenario, we’re talking sluggish growth, and in the worst-case, we’ll have to utter the word that must not be spoken: the word RECESSION. The cause of all this stress? Customs tariffs, of course. Import taxes

Namaste Tariffs

Billy Joel once sang: “We didn’t start the fire.” Well, it sure feels like the fire’s been burning since forever, and the market keeps pouring gasoline on it. The day before yesterday, we soared. Yesterday, we dropped. And after bouncing up and down so much, I have to admit: it’s hard to know what to think anymore. Or maybe not. Personally, I think the best thing we could do right now is shut down the markets until he figures out what he wants to do with his tariffs. Once the self-proclaimed President of the World decides who’s going to pay what, we can reopen global markets and start living a normal life again. Because right now, uncertainty is running the show, and frankly, it’s exhausting. While we wait for the big players to decide to close the stock exchanges indefinitely — just long enough to let the rulers of the world play their little economic war games — we spend our days doing the financial hokey-pokey: “up, down, down, up,” all to the rhythm of a dusty old ‘70s tune. And honestly, it’s getting seriously annoying — if not downright unbearable. I’ve kind of lost the beat. Let’s recap:We got crushed on Monday because there were no negotiations over the weekend and Trump said there wouldn’t be a moratorium.Then Tuesday, markets exploded nearly 10% because Trump said there would be a 90-day moratorium.And yesterday, we tanked again because uncertainty came roaring back and, surprise surprise, the US-China trade war is making investors nervous. I’m glad everyone’s finally realizing that the US-China trade war is a problem, but I’m starting to wonder what the point of trading even is anymore. Opinions flip faster than a pancake, and there’s no safety net — especially when the man in charge has the mental stability of an overcaffeinated Labrador chasing a biscuit under the couch. At this point, buying a stock on Monday and hoping to sell it by Friday at a profit is like playing Russian roulette with five bullets in the chamber. One in six chance you survive. These wild swings bring nothing of value to analysis, because what’s the point of thinking strategically when the guy pulling the strings is completely unpredictable? Tariffs on China are at 145%, and it feels like they climb another 20% every day depending on Trump’s mood. Nothing guarantees he’ll stick to that 90-day moratorium — especially since the weekend starts tonight, he’s heading to the golf course, and by Sunday night he’ll probably tweet something ridiculous from Air Force One on his way back from Florida. No FilterBack to reality. I still believe everything should be shut down until the clowns running the world make up their minds. But in the meantime, markets are open — unfortunately — so let’s stay with the facts. After Wednesday’s explosive rally, European markets had no choice but to chase the US gains on Thursday morning. You can re-read every market summary and search for rational explanations behind Thursday’s European rebound, but there’s only one real reason: the stratospheric rise from Wednesday. For now, as long as the Muppet Show in Washington continues, Europe is just following America’s lead, albeit with a bit of a time delay — like watching a rerun in slow motion. If you tuned in to European news channels yesterday, you’ll have noticed nothing else happened apart from Trump’s sudden U-turn on tariffs. We spent the entire day in “special edition mode” trying to figure out why he flipped and whether he manipulated the markets for personal gain. No clear answers emerged, of course, but European indices closed sharply higher. Some politicians even started patting themselves on the back, thinking Trump blinked because he was afraid of Europe. Right. Still No FilterThen the Americans came into the office and started taking profits after the previous day’s euphoric rally. As soon as Europe closed its markets, the sell-off resumed in New York. By the end of the session, the S&P500 had lost 3.5% and the Nasdaq 4.5%. And honestly? Nothing much happened during that session. Well — at least Trump didn’t say anything new. The media took over and started throwing around words like “insider trading” and dissecting the logic (or lack thereof) behind his reversal, just to keep things passionate and semi-rational. But again, the day was violent and volatile. I remember not so long ago, when we proudly counted the number of days the market didn’t move more than 2% in either direction. Days when the only driver of stock prices was: “Well, the Fed’s going to cut rates anyway!” That golden age feels like ancient history. And once again, just as Europe was celebrating gains, the Americans were dragging everything down again — almost as if they were deliberately trying to do the exact opposite. But let’s stay calm. After a 10% rally, a pullback is completely normal. It’s what White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro said yesterday — that the market decline was nothing special and just a natural profit-taking move. Navarro, by the way, is the guy Elon Musk once called an idiot. Given his track record and deep anti-China stance, I wouldn’t be surprised if he avoids Chinese food altogether. Stats and InflationAnd since we were in “special edition” mode all day, we went digging through old statistics and found out that Wednesday’s surge was only the 10th biggest single-day gain ever. Most of the top gains happened in the 1930s. The all-time record still belongs to March 15, 1933, when the S&P500 jumped 16.61%. We also saw better days during October 2008. Historically, when you get a “meltdown-mania” kind of day like Wednesday, markets tend to lose it all again within 10 days. And for those wondering what triggered the 1933 rally: it was the passage of the Emergency Banking Act, meant to restore faith in the system. Some things never change in the world of high finance. On days like that, everything rises — even junk stocks.

Goldman’s Crystal Ball

I think we’ve just reached a new peak in human stupidity – at least in the financial sector. What President Trump is doing right now is the biggest stock market manipulation in history. Honestly, I’m at a loss for words to describe what we’ve been witnessing in the markets for a few days already, but what happened yesterday goes beyond comprehension and shatters the credibility of global stock exchanges. Once again, after European markets closed, Trump did his little show and “offered” us the biggest surge in 24 years. The only word that comes to mind is: idiotic. Which, by the way, sums up the past 8 weeks pretty well. Not much to say except stating the facts Yesterday’s trading session had two distinct phases: Phase one – depression and a new wave of European panic, where everyone was freaking out over trade war escalation, recession risks, and the idea that under such circumstances, stock markets would never recover and we might be heading into an unprecedented economic nuclear winter. All major European markets ended deep in the red. A 3% drop in Germany, 3.34% in France, 2.75% in Italy, 2.22% in Spain, and 4.15% in Switzerland – which had, until recently, managed to fall less than others. Roche and Novartis down 6%, same for Sanofi, even though the pharma sector is still exempt from tariffs, BUT WE ALLOWED OURSELVES TO THINK that Trump might soon announce specific tariffs on non-American pharmaceutical companies. So, European and Japanese markets spent the whole day catching up on Tuesday’s drop, since let me remind you that on TUESDAY, we had opened higher and stayed higher throughout the session because the Americans had shown the way by anticipating a TARIFF PAUSE. Remember this juicy detail – it’s about to get even better in just half a paragraph! You know the rest: Americans chickened out Tuesday evening when Trump declared there would be no tariff pause, implying that countries had no choice but to crawl at his feet and lick the leather of his loafers if they wanted any kind of deal with the US. So Wednesday morning, Europeans had no choice but to dump everything they had bought back on Tuesday, since tariffs were here to STAY!!! YES, YOU READ THAT RIGHT – yesterday, by the end of the day, while Europeans were heading home after another bloodbath on the markets… morale in the gutter, convinced we’d never get out of this… The atmosphere was grim and heavy. And then Trump showed up (again) While on our side of the Atlantic, depression was deep and worries were at their peak. Everyone trying to imagine an economic future weighed down by crushing tariffs and runaway inflation caused by those same tariffs. Then, Trump showed up. Again. The President of all Americans decided to implement a 90-day moratorium on tariffs. He did this after European markets had already closed in the dumps. Which now gives a wonderful opportunity for European indexes to pedal upstream all throughout the session starting in a few hours. I don’t know if some people closed out yesterday with short positions, thinking the economic nuclear winter would last until Friday, but one thing’s certain – today’s going to be rough for them. Trump’s announcement sparked an INSANE rally: nearly 10% on the S&P500, 12% on the Nasdaq, and almost 8% on the Dow Jones. We hadn’t seen a session like that since 2001. 24 years! It’s been 24 years since the markets blew a fuse like they did last night. It felt like Trump had just announced that tariffs would never return, and that, just maybe, he’d start giving out gifts to countries just for being nice to America, while saying he no longer gave a damn about Making America Great Again – his only goal now being to push the S&P500 to 10,000 before the end of March. I swear, watching the market and the performance of some tech stocks that were up over 20% during the session, I got the impression that tariffs were completely forgotten and that we had to rush back up to where we were on February 19th: at all-time highs. So this morning, I went online and tried to find synonyms for the word “idiotic” to describe the markets in a more creative way, but honestly, I’m out of words… We could say what happened yesterday is completely dumb – that works too. But I was hoping for something more flamboyant. Anyway, no point complaining because things are going up, but what worries me more is the violence of the moves. And above all, the total disconnect between the announcements and market reactions. The further we go, the more explosive the consequences of these announcements become. It’s worth noting that yesterday’s rebound was stronger than the one during COVID when they told us it was open bar, the governments would support us forever, and the money started pouring in the very next day… The facts Anyway: yesterday, US markets exploded and this morning, Europe is set to do the same. But seriously, what did the guy actually say to cause such a stampede? Did he announce that it was all over and that he’d hand out 1 Bitcoin to every American? Did he say he’d been wrong and was now going on a global tour with Air Force One to personally apologize to every world leader? Nope. He just suspended the retaliatory tariffs that had been announced on April 2nd. Which means the original 10% tariffs still remain, but the additional ones are off. For 90 days. And if, during those 90 days, the affected countries don’t come crawling to Washington to negotiate, they’ll get slapped with the full tariffs again. Or worse. And it’s already started. Since the Chinese have shown “disrespect” to the Americans in recent days and have, let’s not forget, RIPPED OFF the US for years, Trump gave them a penalty: while the rest of the world gets a 90-day moratorium,

Tariffs Night Fever

This morning, let’s try to stay calm and keep things simple when explaining what’s going on.In fact, I don’t even know if we can “explain” what’s happening, as we’re reaching levels of sheer absurdity.Yes, we’re still obsessed with the issue of tariffs, and everyone has an opinion on the matter.We’re trying to decode what’s happening with the information we’re given, but trying to decode what Trump has in mind has become a psychological and medical challenge of unprecedented proportions, considering how complex the man seems to be.And in the middle of all this, the markets have gone mad.Yesterday’s session will go down in history. The Three Pillars in Ruins When we talk about finance, financial markets, and the stock exchange, we often say that this world operates around three pillars.You know these three pillars:We’re talking about Macroeconomics – analyzing the broader economic environment –Microeconomics – analyzing company fundamentals –And the third pillar: Geopolitics. When we operate with these three pillars simultaneously, and when the players in the financial world focus on them, making them the basis of their investment decisions, things usually go relatively well.This global perspective often helps to balance out the excesses of one or another pillar that might be going through a rough patch. Over the past few months, we’ve talked a lot, and I mean a lot, about macro:Inflation, interest rates, economic growth (or the lack of it), and employment. And even though this pillar has been a total mess since the end of the COVID crisis, we’ve still been able to function more or less normally –Because people were also paying attention to individual stocks or sectors that were growing, like AI, for example. As for geopolitics, it’s always been there:Tensions between Taiwan and China, bombings in Gaza, the war in Ukraine, the U.S. elections, Biden wanting to talk to General de Gaulle, and General Macron tearing apart the French Parliament.But the important thing is:We had a global view. A global reflection that helped keep volatility in check and gave the markets some ability to take a step back –To see the bigger picture and look a little further ahead than the next four minutes. And Then, Trump Then Trump was elected, and it was clearly a win for the markets.We doubled down on tech, because Trump wanted to develop AI with his Stargate Project –Yes, remember!At the very beginning of Trump 2.0, AI exploded because Trump was going to make it rain money on the sector.Just like with cryptocurrencies – it was a SURE BET.Well… almost sure. Following the undisputed victory of the Republican President, the markets took off.We hit “all-time highs” like it was nothing.Trump was the Messiah. Yes, okay, he was going to impose tariffs, but since EVERYONE knew that these tariffs would NEVER lead to higher inflation,It was simply another way – a very good way – to Make America GREAT AGAIN, and that was to his credit. But most of all, we were still able to focus on Nvidia’s quarterly results or the numbers from the Magnificent Seven,While perfectly remembering the publication dates of the PCE, NFP, CPI, and ISM Manufacturing reports. Not to mention that while we were managing our macro and micro agendas like pros,We were still able to follow the electoral debates in Kazakhstan or the cabinet reshuffle in Colombia –While in the other ear – the third ear – we listened to another (somewhat populist, let’s be honest) speech from Madame Meloni during the umpteenth G20 meeting. And then Trump was sworn in at the end of January, and our brains did a “Control-Alt-Delete.” Since then, we’ve been unable to do anything other than repeat the same words over and over again, like a broken record: “Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs…” At night, I wake up in a sweat because I dreamed Trump came to my house to personally collect tariffs.I fall back asleep, and the next minute I’m back in a nightmare where I’m forced to buy a Nokia 3210 because buying an iPhone 17 now requires a mortgage loan –And while I run from the Nokia Store, I’m being chased by a man dressed as an Obersturmbannführer trying to force me into a Tesla pick-up truck. When I finally escape behind the wheel of a Diesel Clio fitted with Chinese hybrid tech that turns into a dragon after 30 kilometers,I wake up drenched in sweat, only to realize it’s Wednesday morning,that we’ve been dragged around by Trump’s tariffs for almost a week now, and that since “Liberation Day,” we’ve had zero actual freedom. 100% Tariffs Every morning, I replay the film of the previous day. I read around 50 finance-related articles about markets, stocks, and the economy Sometimes I also check out some kittens playing on TikTok, But I always come back to finance. And this morning, I won’t lie – for a brief moment, I couldn’t even remember what day it was,nor when the market last moved in one direction for a full day –Or when we weren’t tempted to open our veins with a butter knife three times a day. I don’t know if you realize, but when I looked at Wall Street’s close yesterday, It felt like I’d missed something ,because yesterday afternoon, U.S. markets had opened up 4.5%, and now, with my eyes still glued shut from sleep, I saw the S&P ended down 1.6%. Even though Monday was exactly the opposite. After opening at rock bottom, the indexes climbed back to almost positive territory. And yet no, you’re not dreaming.What’s been happening over the last 48 hours is the plain truth. Markets are going in every possible direction, and yesterday, while Europe was catching up on the delay accumulated from Monday’s session in the U.S. (since most of the rebound had happened after European markets closed—nothing new there), the U.S. markets kept the momentum going until the end of the European session… only to crash again with brutal force. Just to hit us with a bearish reversal on U.S. indices

What If We’re Being Fooled?

When people hear about Trump’s tariffs, most think it’s a trade war meant to punish China, but who will get hurt the most? How might tariffs negatively impact the economy, companies, and people around the globe? Will the rich or the poor bear the brunt of this? To understand the real strategy behind Trump’s tariffs, we need to break it down. Why Did Trump Impose Tariffs? The Common Perception: Many view Trump’s tariffs as a response to China’s trade practices and intellectual property theft. On the surface, it seems like a direct conflict between the U.S. and China over unfair trade. However, there’s much more at play. The Real Strategy: Trump’s tariffs were part of a larger strategy designed to address not just trade imbalances but also the corporate behavior that hurt U.S. workers and the economy. Here’s why: Targeting Tax Loopholes: For decades, U.S. companies have used offshore tax havens to avoid paying taxes. By raising the cost of imports, Trump sought to encourage companies to stop outsourcing production and bring jobs back to the U.S. This wasn’t just about China — it was about rebalancing the global economic system. Encouraging Manufacturing in the U.S.: By imposing tariffs on imports, particularly from China, Trump aimed to make it more expensive for companies to produce goods abroad. This would push companies to reconsider where they manufacture and, hopefully, bring jobs and production back to U.S. soil. Pressuring Multinational Corporations: Trump’s tariffs were also designed to force multinational companies to face the reality of their offshore strategies. By changing the cost structure, these companies would be forced to play by U.S. rules, supporting local jobs and reinvesting in domestic infrastructure. How Big U.S. Companies Avoided Taxes for Decades The Loopholes That Helped Corporations Avoid Paying Taxes: For years, many of the largest U.S. corporations have exploited offshore tax havens in countries like Ireland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, where tax rates are much lower than in the U.S. The result? These companies avoided paying billions of dollars in taxes while making enormous profits. The “Double Irish with a Dutch Sandwich”: A well-known strategy used by companies to avoid taxes was the “Double Irish with a Dutch Sandwich.” This tactic involved shifting profits to subsidiaries in low-tax countries, reducing their overall tax burden. This wasn’t a loophole — it was a system that allowed corporations to play the global tax game to their advantage. The Numbers: In 2016, U.S. companies had more than $2.6 trillion in cash stored overseas, avoiding U.S. taxes. The question was: why should these companies continue to benefit from this tax avoidance while everyday Americans had to pick up the tab? Trump’s Response: Through tariffs, tax reforms, and other policies, Trump sought to limit these practices and repatriate jobs and tax revenue back to the U.S. His approach wasn’t just about punishing China; it was about fixing the global economic imbalances that allowed these companies to profit without contributing their fair share. Is Protectionism Really a Bad Thing? What is Protectionism?Protectionism is a government policy aimed at shielding local industries from foreign competition by imposing tariffs, taxes, or other trade restrictions. While some argue that it can benefit local economies, others believe it hinders global markets and raises consumer prices. Criticism of Protectionism:Critics argue that protectionism often results in higher prices for consumers, limits access to cheaper goods, and creates trade barriers that may disrupt international markets. However, is this the full picture? The U.S. Experience with Protectionism:Under President Trump’s administration, protectionist measures were designed to reduce the U.S.’s dependency on foreign manufacturing. His policies focused on bringing jobs back to the U.S. and ensuring that American companies were more competitive. The ultimate goal wasn’t just to target countries like China, but to rebuild a more self-sufficient and sustainable U.S. economy. The Impact on European Industries:Over the years, many European companies have moved production to countries with cheaper labor and operational costs. This trend has caused significant economic shifts, with job losses in industries across several European nations, example: Germany: Opel: Once a major name in German automotive manufacturing, Opel was sold to Peugeot (France), and the company is now undergoing restructuring. Siemens: Parts of Siemens’ manufacturing operations have moved to more affordable locations in Asia. Miele: Plans are in place to shift much of Miele’s production to Poland, leading to job cuts in Germany. BASF: This chemical giant announced plans to downsize European operations due to high energy costs. Schaeffler: The auto parts supplier will reduce its workforce by 4,700 jobs across Europe and close two German plants as part of cost-cutting measures. France: Alstom: In 2014, Alstom sold its energy division to General Electric, resulting in thousands of job losses. Textile Industry: Many French textile companies have outsourced production to North Africa, where labor is cheaper. Italy: Fiat and Ferrari: These iconic brands have moved manufacturing to countries like Poland and Brazil to take advantage of lower labor costs. Fabriano Paper Industry: Once a leader in paper production, Fabriano has faced economic decline as foreign-owned companies scale back operations. Spain: The textile and shoe industries in Spain have been outsourcing production to Asia and Latin America for decades in search of lower manufacturing costs. United Kingdom: Nestlé: The company announced the closure of its Fawdon factory, affecting nearly 600 jobs, as production moves to other European facilities. SKF: This company plans to close its Luton plant and shift production to Poland to stay competitive. British Steel: In 2018, British Steel announced 400 job cuts, largely due to raw material price fluctuations influenced by Brexit. Greece:The financial crisis led to the sale of national assets, contributing to the closure or relocation of major businesses, further adding to the country’s economic instability. The Case for Protectionism:Proponents of protectionism argue that such measures can help local industries by reducing foreign competition, leading to more jobs and economic growth. They believe protecting industries like steel, textiles, and automotive manufacturing from cheap overseas production can ensure the survival of key sectors

Mayday – Mayday

  A Worldwide Shockwave from U.S. TariffsThe global stock market is experiencing one of its most turbulent days in recent years, as fears of a full-scale trade war take center stage. The spark? A sweeping move by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose fresh tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on a wide range of imported goods. This unexpected decision has created shockwaves across international markets, stoking fears of supply chain disruptions, retaliatory measures, and a potential slowdown in global economic activity. Investors worldwide are reacting with panic, pulling back from equities and rushing toward traditional safe-haven assets. This coordinated selloff has affected all major indices and regions, starting with Asia and rippling through Europe and the U.S. Asian Markets: Panic Selling Hits HardMarkets in Asia opened the week with deep losses, reflecting the nervousness surrounding trade uncertainty. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged nearly 9%, its worst single-day performance since 2020, driven largely by the collapse of bank and tech stocks. The Topix bank index fell as much as 17.3%, signaling systemic worries. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index recorded a historic drop of almost 12%, the steepest since the 2008 global financial crisis. Taiwan’s Taiex shed 9.7%, nearing a 35-year record low. These sharp declines were accompanied by losses of 5–7% across Shanghai, Singapore, and South Korea. The sentiment in Asia is clear: the region is bracing for serious economic fallout, especially among export-driven economies vulnerable to U.S. policy shifts. European Equities Dive on Trade War FearsAs markets opened in Europe, investor sentiment remained gripped by fear. The pan-European STOXX 600 tumbled 5.8%, dragged down by autos, banks, and industrials. Germany’s DAX fell 0.7% despite a relatively resilient economic outlook, with German automakers particularly exposed due to the 25% U.S. import tariff on foreign vehicles and auto parts. France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s FTSE MIB were also in the red, losing between 2% and 4%. The overall atmosphere in Europe is one of vulnerability. Companies reliant on cross-border trade are now under pressure, and the likelihood of retaliatory tariffs from the EU is growing. Investors are also watching how central banks may respond in the coming weeks to provide stimulus or policy clarity. U.S. Market Futures Paint a Gloomy PictureAlthough Wall Street hasn’t opened yet, futures are flashing red across the board. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are pointing to a potential 1,600-point drop, while S&P 500 futures are down more than 3%. Nasdaq futures have slid nearly 4%, as technology companies brace for the impact of higher component costs and weakened demand overseas. These moves follow Friday’s already shaky close, where indexes ended lower on speculation that Trump’s administration was preparing to escalate trade tensions. The fear now is not only immediate profit loss due to tariffs but also a broader dent in consumer confidence and business investment. Analysts warn that if the selloff accelerates during U.S. market hours, circuit breakers might be triggered. Energy, Oil, and Middle East Currencies SlammedThe turbulence hasn’t spared commodity or emerging markets either. Oil prices have plunged below $60 per barrel, with Brent crude shedding nearly 15% over five days. This has hit the Middle East hard, where local stock markets tumbled across the board—Dubai dropped nearly 6%, Abu Dhabi fell 4%, and Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul Index lost over 6% as Aramco shares sank more than 5%. These nations face a dual crisis: reduced export earnings due to falling oil and increased economic pressure from weakened demand in global trade. Currencies like the Saudi riyal and UAE dirham, though pegged to the dollar, are facing capital flight pressures. With energy stocks sinking and budget deficits looming, regional governments may be forced to cut public spending or borrow heavily. Investors Rush to Gold While Outlook Remains UncertainIn the face of mounting uncertainty, investors are seeking refuge in gold, which has now surpassed $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar have also seen modest gains, as traders reduce risk exposure. Financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have already revised global growth forecasts downward, warning of potential recessionary scenarios if trade tensions persist. The next few days will be critical as the world watches for responses from major central banks and policymakers. Meanwhile, markets remain in high alert. For investors, it’s a time to proceed with caution, reassess risk, and prepare for further volatility. Whether this is a short-lived panic or the beginning of a prolonged downturn depends heavily on geopolitical developments—and whether diplomacy can prevail.   A Rush to Washington: Countries Seek Direct Talks with Trump, Dividing EuropeAs the U.S. trade war intensifies, countries from across the globe are scrambling to negotiate directly with President Trump in hopes of securing exemptions from the newly imposed tariffs. Leaders from Asia, including Japan, South Korea, and India, have all made their way to the White House to discuss the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on their economies and to seek relief from the sweeping trade measures. Japan, in particular, has expressed concern over the heavy toll on its automotive industry, while South Korea is looking for leniency on steel tariffs. In contrast, China’s attempts to reach a resolution have been met with skepticism, as U.S.-China relations remain at a boiling point. Meanwhile, Europe is experiencing its own form of fragmentation. While some EU countries, such as Germany, are pushing for a united front in resisting the tariffs, others have taken a more self-serving approach. Italy, for example, has been quietly negotiating with the U.S. on a separate trade deal to protect its industries, while countries like France and Spain are voicing concerns over the EU’s inability to act cohesively. This division within Europe has weakened the EU’s negotiating position, as member states prioritize their own national interests over collective action. As a result, the global trade landscape is becoming increasingly fractured, with countries seeking individual agreements that undermine the possibility of a unified response to the U.S. tariffs.  The Role of Emerging Markets: Economic Strain and Currency InstabilityEmerging

Bear Market Is Here

    Alright. This morning, let’s try to keep it simple. I’ll try to avoid giving you a detailed summary of what happened, since you already know, and anyway, you probably already have an opinion and don’t need mine. But still, we have to go back over the fact that we just had one hell of a shitty session. Yes, I know: “one hell of a shitty session” isn’t exactly polite language, but at this point in the bloodbath, it’s hard to open a thesaurus and find a phrase like: “the session wasn’t particularly pleasant from a mathematical point of view.” No, the session was crap, and it’s probably not over. Not Historical, But Almost So Trump reignited the trade war, lashing out at the entire world and apparently even managing to impose tariffs on uninhabited islands, just in case seagulls start producing semiconductors. This “declaration” of war triggered a tsunami on global stock markets. Yesterday, there were no survivors—everyone rushed for the lifeboats in full-on “my portfolio first, women and children later, if there’s still room” mode. The S&P 500 lost 4.8%, marking its worst day since June 2020. The Nasdaq took a 6% hit and basically got stomped on, dragged through the mud afterward. The Russell 2000 plunged 6.5% and officially entered Bear Market territory. The SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) got wiped out, dropping nearly 10%—9.88% to be exact—and at this point, we can’t even call it a Bear Market anymore, because the index is down 34% since July 2024. That’s a crash. The only thing missing is the speed of execution. But the SOX!!! The SOX, which has been THE Leading Indicator for tech markets for years, our compass in the storm, our North Star in the night. The SOX is now in a state that means nothing. Or rather, it does mean something: it means that nobody will ever buy cutting-edge technology again. It means nobody will ever need semiconductors again—for phones, laptops, autonomous cars, dishwashers that tell you when they’re done rinsing, PlayStations to brighten our weekends, or even better: nobody will need chips to build Texas-sized data centers to run Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing. If you’re wondering whether we’ve lost our minds, stop thinking. You’re absolutely right. The market is in full-on delusion, just like we were in full-on delusion when we were gaining 2% every day for days on end just because Jerome (Powell) might one day lower interest rates. Exaggeration, extension—breathe, relax… Markets are fascinating creatures. Fascinating because we’re capable of getting hyped up on flaky theories and buying anything at any price, as long as there’s a fitting narrative to go along with it and two or three people to tell us the story by the fireplace at night. Just as we’re capable of selling everything (like yesterday), using the exact same narrative we’ve been fed for months—just flipped the other way. What I’m trying to say is: we’re now experiencing the same kind of exaggeration we saw on the way up. Except this time, we’re living it on the way down. And it’s fascinating that we’re able to get just as carried away—in the exact opposite direction. On February 19, 2025—exactly 44 days ago—the Nasdaq 100 was at 22,222. Yesterday, we closed the session at 18,521. That’s 16.6% lower and 9% below the 200-day moving average. And yet, in between, macro data hasn’t really changed—interest rates haven’t moved, there hasn’t been any major earnings release—except Nvidia (which we’re not even talking about anymore, thankfully, since the stock is down 34% since late January). So even though nothing concrete happened—apart from tariffs—markets literally collapsed. It’s the Apocalypse, and the mood is almost dramatic. People are comparing this to 2008, wondering what the hell the Fed is doing this time, and it feels like we’re on the edge of panic. No Volatility? Looking at year-to-date performance, the Dow Jones is down 4.7%, the S&P 500 is down 8.25%, and the Nasdaq: 14%. Over in Europe, Spain is still up 13%, the DAX is up 9%, and even Switzerland is up 5.8%. And yet, when you listen to the market chatter, the commentary from everyone and the nervousness of some investors, it feels like we’re inching closer to a panic zone. Contrarian indicators tell us that people have rarely been this bearish, the Fear & Greed Index is at 8, and the inventors of the index are probably wondering if they can invent negative values—like, can we go below zero? Everything points to an end-of-the-world vibe, panic knocking at the door. And yet, the VIX—the fear index—is only at 30%. For those who like parallels: last August, when Japan almost collapsed in our hands, the VIX shot up to 65%. In 2008, it hit 96%. And now, while Trump floods us with dumb tariffs and picks fights with the whole planet—making Ursula von der Leyen seem almost likable in her role as “fierce protector of Europe”—volatility is struggling to even reach 30%. It’s like there’s some missing piece of information. Something we just can’t seem to factor into our thinking. Maybe deep down we don’t want to believe that what Trump is doing is truly, completely stupid. We want to believe it’s not possible—that the guy must have some semi-rational strategy behind it and that he can’t really be that dumb. Even though that’s EXACTLY what the FABULOUS European politicians—all nearly flawless—have been repeating on loop for the last 24 hours. And Yet And yet, it’s a fact. Trump is trying something against the advice of the rest of the world, and for now, everyone thinks he’s going to crash and burn, and that he’s a complete idiot. But from the market’s perspective, it feels like we’re still clinging to something invisible—a separate force telling us we’ll pull through. Because honestly, since 2008, we’ve seen market miracles flip trends like pancakes. And this lack of volatility might be a sign that we’re expecting some kind of miracle to save the SOX

America’s New National Sport

  This morning, the markets are bleeding. Not just a post-FOMC hangover red. No. A full-blown bloodbath.U.S. futures are pointing to a 3% drop at the open. Japan is down more than 3%. Hong Kong is down 2.3%. And European markets are about to be hit ice-cold at the opening bell. The only exception? China, strangely calm. Maybe because they already know what their next move will be. LIBERATION OR DETONATION? It’s official: Trump just pressed the button. What was supposed to be “Liberation Day” turned into a tariff tsunami—an economic shock of unprecedented magnitude since… let’s say 2008. And even that might be an understatement. It all started last night, in the White House gardens. Trump, microphone in hand, in full crusader mode, unveiled his plan: open, aggressive, and massive economic warfare. A “protectionist crusade,” as he called it, to bring back American industrial greatness—even if it blows up the entire global economy. The method? Simple, brutal, and very Trumpian: A universal 10% tariff on ALL imported goods into the U.S. “Reciprocal” surcharges ranging from 20% to 49% for countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit. And just like that, here come the condemned nations: 🇨🇳 China: 34% (up to 54% with fentanyl-related surcharges)🇻🇳 Vietnam: 46%🇰🇭 Cambodia: 49% → World record!🇹🇼 Taiwan: 32% (except for semiconductors—lucky break!)🇮🇳 India: 26%🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 37%🇮🇩 Indonesia: 32%🇪🇺 European Union: 20%🇨🇭 Switzerland: 31% – Shouldn’t have let go of banking secrecy.“These are bargain tariffs,” Trump declared. “We’re making them pay half of what they charge us.” Sure, buddy. THE SEMICONDUCTOR SCARE: SAVED—FOR NOW The 32% tariff on Taiwan sent shockwaves through the tech industry. Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Apple… all of them rely on TSMC, the mega-factory that produces 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. Panic? Absolutely. Then, a last-minute reversal: The White House clarified that semiconductors are excluded. Relief? Not really. Stocks still tanked: Nvidia: 4.3% TSMC: 6.6% AMD: 4.4% Because at the end of the day, the real poison isn’t the tariff—it’s instability. And in an industry where timing is measured in nanoseconds and margins in micro-dollars, instability is a nightmare. WHO PAYS THE BILL? Spoiler: Everyone. But some will feel the pain much sooner than others. Apple: 7%. Dell: 5%. They manufacture in China and Taiwan. Do the math. U.S. retailers: Lululemon 11%, Gap 8.4%, Walmart 5%, Target 5.5%. Why? Because clothing, shoes, and accessories come from heavily tariffed countries. Brewers: 25% tariff on aluminum cans. Even drinking a Corona is now a political act. Green energy: Sunrun 5.6%, GE Vernova 4.6%. Components are imported. And now, they cost a fortune. Private equity: Blackstone, KKR, Apollo—all down. Why? If the Fed can’t cut rates due to imported inflation, their entire business model collapses. Farmers: China retaliated immediately with tariffs on soybeans and corn. If Beijing ramps up the pressure, U.S. agriculture could be crushed. The irony? Trump’s own voter base will take the hardest hit. THE PERFECT RECIPE FOR A RECESSION The formula is frighteningly simple: Soaring prices A Fed trapped between inflation and slowdown Supply chains in ruins Consumer spending under pressure Now add a dash of geopolitical chaos, shake violently, and voilà: a Made-in-Trump recession.If you think I’m exaggerating, the Atlanta Fed already predicts a GDP contraction for Q1. And that doesn’t even factor in the full impact of the tariff wave. RESHORING? LOL So, will this bring factories back to America? Sure. But let’s be realistic: Manufacturing in the U.S. costs more. It takes longer. And it mostly hires… robots. So, no, we won’t see 10,000 blue-collar workers heading back to factories like it’s 1954. Maybe 12 engineers and a robot dog, if we’re lucky. For now, the world is splintering. There are no friends anymore, just rivals. Europe is screaming. China is plotting its counterattack. India is growling. The era of “every man for himself” is here.The 1990-2020 globalization model? Dead.What we’re witnessing is a paradigm shift—and it’s brutal. IN CONCLUSION: TRUMP DIDN’T PRESS A BUTTON, HE THREW A GRENADE. What he launched last night isn’t just a tariff plan. It’s a total redefinition of the global economic rules.He shoved international trade into a blender, hit the power button, and served it back to us with a pink umbrella and a lemon slice, saying:“Bon appétit, folks. It’s this or nothing.” AND NOW? Jerome Powell (Fed chair) is watching the storm arrive armed with a bucket and a spoon. The markets are in full panic mode. Algos are screaming. Investors are running for cover. And us? We’re getting shaken like it’s 2008 all over again. We’re officially in a correction zone. Just a few steps away from a bear market. The magic number? 4,950 on the S&P 500. Drop below that, and we’re in bear territory. AND ELON? Meanwhile, Elon Musk just announced he’s leaving the government to focus on Tesla—which is great timing because Tesla’s delivery numbers were catastrophic yesterday. The stock plunged 6% on the report. Rebounded 10% on Musk’s departure from DOGE. Dropped another 5% after-hours thanks to Trump’s tariffs. It’s a rollercoaster—and you better have a strong stomach. BOTTOM LINE? IT’S STILL RED. Futures are still down 2.8%—a drop we haven’t seen since COVID or Lehman’s collapse. Have a great day, and see you tomorrow—hopefully with more perspective as we brace for the Non-Farm Payrolls together! “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy. Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful” Warren Buffet Thomas Veillet Financial Columnist