This midweek session won’t go down as the sexiest trading day of the year. We’re all just waiting for real data to sink our teeth into—only to draw half-baked conclusions that will be forgotten in 30 minutes anyway. And even if no one dares to say it out loud, everyone’s waiting for Powell tonight, hoping he drops a little line that could potentially become a legendary quote in the investment world. The happiness hormone injection we got from the China story seems to be wearing off a bit, but one thing is almost certain: the manic phase of early April is archived and forgotten—it’s the return of FOMO and AI.
Nothing Spectacular Performance-Wise
If we strictly go by market performance, there’s nothing here to lose sleep over. In Europe, markets went into pause mode due to a lack of motivation and the absence of any clear catalysts. The “tariff truce” effect with China seems to have run its course for now, and since earnings season is also wrapping up, investors are clearly looking for new reasons to stay engaged. The CAC 40 fell by 0.47%, the DAX by a similar amount, and Switzerland slid gently by 0.27%. Apparently, if we want our mojo back, we’ll need something tangible on the trade deal front—especially with Europe. The luxury sector tumbled because there’s still no clarity from China or the U.S., and the moratorium ends in 87 days. L’Oréal, Kering, and LVMH took a hit. In Switzerland, pharma stocks are still reacting to Trump’s statements, Geberit soared following an upgrade, Sanofi is investing billions in the U.S. hoping to soften up Uncle Donald, and in Germany, Bayer collapsed amid a U.S. health controversy, while Eon managed to stay afloat and Porsche confirmed its targets. In short: European markets are in “wait mode,” desperately looking for a good piece of news that still hasn’t arrived.
In the U.S., it was a mixed bag with the Dow Jones slightly down, mainly because of United Health Care once again. The S&P 500 edged up by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq is officially back with a 0.7% jump—its sixth consecutive gain—and an internal explosion driven by artificial intelligence. Yes, that thing we hadn’t talked about since February because we were too busy panicking over the end of the world via incoming tariffs. The same thing we were ready to sell our grandmothers for, just to buy Nvidia at $155 on January 8 without blinking. The same thing that made us suicidal on April 7, 2025, when it dropped to $86.65. Well, AI is back, and NO ONE is afraid anymore! If we look at indexes, the Nasdaq is up 28% in just 5 weeks. That’s 35 days, nearly 1% per day—clearly, FOMO is back, and semiconductors are going nuts, as if they’d just found a vaccine for every disease in the world simultaneously.
The Top 50
The AI and semiconductor sectors were clearly the stars of the show in New York, while Trump was flashing his checkbook in the Middle East, tech companies went wild and kept riding the wave—a wave that keeps gaining momentum. In the day’s top headlines, Super Micro Computer soared +16% after a mega $20 billion deal with the Saudis at DataVolt. Yes, the Saudis again. I’ll spare you the deal’s nitty-gritty, but basically, SMCI will accelerate the delivery of everything needed to supercharge MBS’s AI ambitions. The stock’s performance over two sessions is now up 34%—thanks to upgrades and that insane deal, Super Micro is back. Or at least it looks that way. AMD also announced a $6 billion share buyback, and everything else followed: Nvidia jumped over 4%, ARM climbed over 5%, Applied Digital gained 6.6%, and Intel flopped by 4.6%—as if they missed the train, though the real reason is simply that their new chips aren’t selling well.
Meanwhile, we’ve noticed that the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and SOX are all above their 200-day moving averages, and the Dow Jones would be too if UNH weren’t messing up the index’s weighting. Being above that long-term trendline is reassuring for investors, even though Goldman Sachs is playing it cautiously, staying a bit in cash while waiting for real trade deals—not just feel-good moratorium headlines. Meanwhile, the Fed keeps muddying the waters. Vice Chair Jefferson said that “inflation could pick up again because of tariffs” and that there’s still “a lot of uncertainty” about the trajectory—which basically means he doesn’t know and can’t say anything meaningful. And yet, between the lines, we can infer that rate cuts are not coming tomorrow. Not even tonight during Powell’s much-anticipated speech.
The Squeeze
And then there’s something less talked about: U.S. interest rates are in full turmoil—and it’s not just about the numbers. It reflects a market full of doubt, a Fed in delay mode, and an economic environment under high pressure. While volatility has calmed down, FOMO is back in charge, and “Greed and Fear” has gone full Gordon Gekko mode—because, well, “Greed is good”—interest rates are sending a different message. Right now, the U.S. 10-year yield is flirting with 4.54%, the 2-year is over 4%, and the 30-year is nearing 4.94%. This yield curve—steeper than the climb up Alpe d’Huez—shows that investors are demanding a premium for long-term lending. Which tends to indicate they expect persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. Not quite the same signal the VIX is giving off.
No matter what anyone says, inflation remains a major concern—even though it’s dropped to 2.3%. The reason? Once again, it’s the fear of tariffs that could complicate the Fed’s job. Clearly, the bond market isn’t seeing things the same way as the stock or crypto markets. We saw it again yesterday with Jefferson’s comments. Given this situation, the Fed is adopting a wait-and-see stance. The key rate is being held steady between 4.25% and 4.5%. EXPERTS are now oscillating between hope and caution. Expected rate cuts are pushed further into the year—maybe—and will depend on how inflation and growth evolve. In short, U.S. rates reflect a climate of uncertainty, where every political or economic decision could have major repercussions. Investors must remain alert—and they clearly are, as the bond market shows. So don’t sell the VIX’s skin until you’ve well and truly killed it.
In Conclusion
If we had to summarize yesterday’s session:The market is euphoric about AI, schizophrenic about interest rates, cautious about inflation, confused about tariffs, and we’re still flying blind through a foggy sea with an altimeter that gives false readings.
This morning, Asia is hitting the brakes. After four days of tech rally, investors are taking a breather while waiting for Alibaba’s earnings, due out today. As we mentioned earlier, the euphoria from the US-China trade truce is starting to fade: tariffs are still in place, and the real deal remains elusive. Japan slips 1.1% ahead of growth figures expected to show a contraction. Hong Kong and South Korea are flat. In China, the CSI 300 dips but remains up for the week. Alibaba and Tencent are up +0.5%, driven by AI and local consumption. Australia stands apart, gaining 0.1% thanks to a surprisingly strong job market — so strong that it’s casting doubt on a potential rate cut.
At the moment, oil is plunging back to $61.75, dragged down by rumors of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, which could lift sanctions and bring Iranian crude back to the market. Meanwhile, US oil inventories surged by 3.5 million barrels — a big jump when a decline was expected. Suddenly, we’re back to talking about oversupply. Even OPEC is revising its global supply forecasts downward. Bottom line: too much oil, too much uncertainty, and not enough geopolitical tension to support prices.
Meanwhile, gold is having a rough day, dropping toward $3,150 an ounce. Why? US yields are soaring — the 10-year is now above 4.54%. And when yields go up, gold becomes a lot less appealing.
In short: oil is losing fuel, and gold is losing its shine. As for Bitcoin, it’s lurking around $103,000.
Today’s headlines take us back in time.
We thought Cisco was collecting dust along with its old routers… but surprise! The company is riding the AI wave like Keanu Reeves in Point Break. Result: over $14 billion in revenue (+11% year-over-year) and earnings that smashed expectations last night.
But the real boost? AI orders already topping $1 billion — a full quarter ahead of schedule. The stock jumped +3% after hours, and Cisco is guiding $14.5–14.7 billion for the next quarter.
Nice to see a company with vision. The CEO is popping champagne and crediting their global secure network. Behind the scenes, the CFO is stepping down in July, to be replaced by an internal strategist — think Game of Thrones boardroom edition.
Analysts are applauding: strong margins, pricing already factored in, and network demand rebounding. To top it off, Cisco is already working on “quantum network chips.” Yes, really.
So for anyone who thought Cisco was dead — not quite…
Another overnight headline: Boeing is gaining altitude
Qatar Airways is going full throttle with a massive order: 210 long-haul aircraft — Dreamliners and 777Xs — in a potential $96 billion deal, engines included.
The stock is up +0.8% while the rest of the market is still asleep.
The White House is thrilled, and Boeing is breathing again: with 5,700 planes in backlog, they’ve got enough work through 2035. In April, they delivered 45 planes — better than 2024, but still not party time. They’re aiming for 560 deliveries in 2025 and 800 per year by 2028, with cash flow finally turning attractive again.
Boeing is the comeback kid — brought back from the dead and flying First Class on Trump’s geopolitical deals.
The rest
In other news, Dick’s Sporting Goods is in advanced talks to buy Foot Locker for $2.3 billion — $24 per share.
For the record, Foot Locker closed at $12.87. The deal could be finalized as early as today, according to The Wall Street Journal.
And there’s a major hedge fund conference in New York, where Jim Chanos made waves. The famous short-seller is betting against MicroStrategy… while buying Bitcoin.
His logic? Holding Bitcoin directly costs “$1,” but buying it through MicroStrategy costs “$2.50.” A big premium for little added value.
MicroStrategy holds over 500,000 Bitcoins but borrowed heavily to build that stash. Worse, it’s become a kind of Bitcoin stock proxy — its valuation far exceeds the real value of its crypto.
Even more worrying, according to Chanos: other companies are starting to copy the model. “Buy our stock, we’ll buy Bitcoin, and treat us like MicroStrategy.”
He calls this intellectual scam simply “ridiculous.” His strategy? Short the overhyped stock… and buy the real thing: Bitcoin itself. Classic arbitrage — crypto style.
To wrap up
The market is near its highs, but signs of fatigue are showing. All eyes on Powell later today, though I doubt he’ll bring much substance. What’s fascinating is the change in mood: so many financial stars have suddenly turned ultra-bullish after lying low in early April. Everyone’s optimistic again. Nothing can go wrong. We just need to wait for the trade deal details — it’s only a matter of time. The April doubts are gone, and the bull market is back.
But with these rates, not everything is a done deal… A correction can’t be ruled out just yet.
So let’s pretend April never happened and ride the wave of optimism while Trump keeps signing billion-dollar deals in the Middle East.
The President has officially become America’s best soap salesman.
As for today’s data: we’ll get European GDP, US PPI, the Philly Fed, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, jobless claims, retail sales, and of course, Powell’s speech. On earnings watch: Alibaba, Walmart, John Deere, and Applied Materials. For now, futures are down 0.2%.
Have an excellent day — and see you tomorrow to wrap up the week!
