As I start writing this morning column before 5 a.m., one question keeps nagging me: how many times do we use the word Trump in a day? I’m realizing that finding a headline each morning without “TRUMP” in it is becoming extremely difficult. The next four years are going to feel very long.
That aside, yesterday the markets continued to gently slide as we all wait for the Fed. Nothing new there. But there’s movement on the tariff front—and we now have a new war on our hands. India attacked Pakistan, though Wall Street couldn’t care less.
A new war no one cares about
Looking at U.S. futures this morning, it’s clear that the wonderful world of finance is far more focused on the soundbites from the American President than on the outbreak of a potentially terrifying new war—especially considering both involved countries are part of the fashionable little club known for having nuclear weapons. Yes, early this Wednesday morning, India launched targeted strikes on “terrorist” infrastructure in Pakistan and Kashmir. This was in response to a deadly terrorist attack in India last month, which killed 26 people.
According to India’s Defense Ministry, nine sites were hit, but no Pakistani military installations were targeted. New Delhi insists the operation was “measured, targeted, and non-escalatory”—a way to strike hard without tipping the powder keg. Non-escalatory… let’s hope the Pakistanis understand the nuance.
I mention this because it’s geopolitically significant and we should be keeping an eye on it—even if Trump hogs the spotlight almost every day. Yesterday, the President brought back the topic of the trade war. He met with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, and absolutely nothing came out of it. At least they didn’t get into a fistfight and there’s no MMA bout scheduled anytime soon. In short, the tension level of the Carney vs. Trump meeting never reached that of the Zelensky session, but Carney did make it clear that Canada is not for sale, while Trump insisted the U.S. doesn’t need anything from Canada other than friendship. So: no progress, no deal, nothing. Maybe that’s why the markets didn’t climb yesterday—negotiations are going nowhere, and the 90-day moratorium is already well underway. Just 62 days left, and don’t expect any extensions from the U.S.
The return of “light” tensions
This return of trade tensions—even in “light,” aspartame-filled form—still pushed global markets into the red. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones dropped 0.9%, the Nasdaq 0.8%, and the S&P 0.7%. In Germany, the Chancellor had to be elected twice. No one was really spared. By the end of the session, the talk was whether the recent “rally” would last, or if we’re just seeing a bounce within a broader bear market. All the confidence built up in recent days suddenly seemed extinguished and tinged with depression.
The wait-and-see mode ahead of tonight’s Fed decision isn’t helping investors loosen up. The real question is what happens after Powell speaks. Because we all know he’ll basically say he has no clue what’s going on and prefers to wait until things are clearer. Translation: “We’re not touching anything for now, and we’ll see if Trump keeps stirring the pot.” Which is highly likely.
On the macro side, the figure of the day was the trade deficit: up 14% in March to over $140 billion—a new record. Don’t look for complex economic explanations: this is pure panic buying, as companies scrambled to import goods before Trump’s new tariffs jack up the prices. It’s not macroeconomics; it’s panic shopping. Meanwhile, the EU is threatening to retaliate with €100 billion in tariffs on American products “if ongoing trade talks don’t yield satisfactory results for the Union.” The scene is set: it’s Trade War – Season 2, with less and less diplomacy, a big bucket of popcorn, and a supersized Coke to make it through.
It’s all happening in the after-hours!
In summary, at the U.S. close we were down because of stalled trade negotiations, nervous about the growing budget deficit, and stuck in wait-and-speculate mode ahead of the Fed. And then, after the close, things started moving. The U.S. and China announced they’ll officially resume trade talks this weekend in Switzerland, with the goal of de-escalating tariff tensions. Phew! We all remember—yes, we do—when Trump imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese products, prompting a 125% counterstrike from Beijing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted those tariff levels are “unsustainable,” but claims they give the U.S. a strategic edge in negotiations. On the Chinese side, they’re demanding sincere, concrete gestures and are rejecting any deal reached under pressure or blackmail.
So far, markets have reacted positively to the announcement—no need to wonder why futures are up this morning. Still, uncertainty remains high as long as Trump keeps blowing hot and cold.
On top of the trade talk momentum, Trump tossed out another wildcard with a mysterious statement. He said he’ll make a “very, very important” and “groundbreaking” announcement before his Middle East trip from May 13 to 16. Of course, he didn’t say what it’s about, only that it won’t be related to trade—but to “something very positive.” As Coluche once said: “When you know so little, better to just shut up”—never has that made more sense.
In conclusion, the market is stuck in concrete shoes. It’s waiting to hear Powell say he’s powerless, and then it’ll wait again—hoping for a miracle out of some hotel in Switzerland.
Beijing injects, Trump surtaxes, and the world holds its breath
This morning—alongside the Swiss talks—China announced fresh economic support measures to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Beijing plans to cut interest rates, reduce bank reserve requirements, and inject funding into industries, innovation, and services. As a result, Chinese indices are up 0.5%, Hong Kong gained 1.5%, and Japan is doing absolutely nothing.
Gold is trading at $3,393, and Bitcoin around $96,600.
As for oil, there was a technical rebound driven by hopes tied to the trade talks and strong U.S. gasoline demand heading into summer. Add to that a warning from the CEO of Diamondback Energy—a major Permian player—who said activity could slow and production decline if prices stay this low. The EIA echoed this, lowering its U.S. 2025 production forecast to 13.4 million barrels/day, citing the past three months of price drops. Markets now await tonight’s inventory data to confirm the trend in fuel demand. All that to say: the barrel stands at $59.64.
The Day’s Results
Yesterday was another big day for quarterly earnings. No spoiler alert needed when I tell you the main themes were “lack of visibility” and “impact from tariffs,” but today I’ve chosen to talk about four names making headlines: Ferrari, Rivian, Super Micro, and AMD.
Rivian Pushing Uphill
Let’s start with Rivian’s electric SUVs, which are still rolling, but now facing a headwind.
The company has revised its annual production forecast down to 40,000–46,000 vehicles, from a previously expected 51,000. And of course, tariffs are to blame. Strangely enough, Rivian manufactures in the U.S. and shouldn’t be overly impacted, but American consumers are starting to have existential doubts before buying an $80,000 car.
Despite that, Q1 numbers weren’t bad at all: losses were narrower than expected, revenue beat forecasts, and Volkswagen showed up with a billion-dollar check for future investments. Rivian is (for now) maintaining its full-year targets and still hopes to hit gross profit breakeven by 2025. No miracle yet… but at least the wheels are still turning. The stock dropped 1.5% after the close.
Ferrari Still Laughing (As Usual)
It’s a different story over at Ferrari. The Italian carmaker, which sells cars for more than a Manhattan 3-bedroom apartment, posted solid Q1 2025 results—as usual, one might say. Revenue climbed to €1.8 billion, net profit jumped 17% to €412 million, and all that with just 30 more cars sold compared to last year over the same period.
When you can sell a V12 for the price of a yacht, you don’t need to move tons of units to boost your charts.
But here comes Donald Trump, crashing the party in Maranello. With a 25% tariff hike on cars and spare parts, the U.S. market — which accounts for a third of Ferrari’s revenue — is starting to feel the heat. Ferrari, not stupid, has already announced price hikes of up to 10%, depending on the model. Tough luck for anyone on a waitlist.
Analysts are staying calm, assuming Ferrari’s clientele is wealthy enough to absorb the increase without flinching. After all, if you’re spending €400,000 on a car, you’re probably not going to fuss over an extra 10%. Still, there’s pressure building on margins, and even Ferrari may start to feel it eventually. The stock was slightly up yesterday.
AMD Brings Out the Bazooka
AMD came in blazing in Q1: revenue up 36% to $7.4 billion, net profit of $709 million (that’s 6x last year), and its data center segment exploded by 57%—thanks, AI and chip-hungry servers. Even PCs and consoles are making a comeback with +28%.
Only downside? The “embedded” segment dropped 3%, but hey, who’s buying smart fridges right now anyway?
For the current quarter, AMD is aiming for $7.4 billion in revenue, above expectations, even with $800 million in costs related to new export restrictions. No big deal—CEO Lisa Su remains calm and says 2025 looks strong. Result? The stock gained 2% after hours. Not euphoric, but things will look even better once China strikes a deal.
Super Micro Cools Expectations (And the Market)
Super Micro Computer — Nvidia’s BFF — lowered its annual guidance for the third time. Now projecting $21.8–22.6 billion in revenue for the year, down from a lofty $30 billion forecast just a few months ago. At this rate, they’ll soon be announcing SME-level numbers.
Q1 disappointed, no sugarcoating it: $4.6 billion in revenue vs. $5.5 billion expected, and earnings per share of 31 cents—down by half year-on-year. Blame clients delaying orders (hello, Nvidia?), a tightening macro backdrop, and Trump’s tariffs starting to weigh. Guidance also came in below expectations.
Still, CEO Charles Liang remains optimistic, expecting a rebound over the next two quarters and emphasizing long-term growth potential thanks to AI and server demand. In the meantime, the market only remembered one thing: “downward revision.” The stock fell 4.8% after close.
And Now?
So, China and the U.S. are negotiating, Trump is teasing a world-changing announcement, Ferrari is coasting, Rivian is struggling, SMCI is sinking, and AMD is thriving. The trade deficit is exploding, India is bombing, and we’re wondering if this is the end of the rebound or the beginning of a new era — with Powell set to take center stage tonight. That’ll be the one and only thing keeping us awake today!
See you tomorrow as usual — and in the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the Investir.ch newsletter by entering your email in the top right corner of the website. It’s free, and you won’t miss a thing!
May the force be with you, young padawans — see you tomorrow!
