Welcome to this wonderful world where Nvidia saves humanity with semiconductors. Where Trump gets put in his place by angry judges. Where Powell meditates deep in his cave, praying for inflation to cool off. And where markets keep climbing despite uncertainty about, well… pretty much everything.
Today, we could have talked only about Nvidia—because dropping $44 billion in revenue in Q1 is, let’s be honest, pretty impressive—but the news served us a full buffet. Between trade wars, tariff lawsuits, Fed Minutes, the Trump–Powell duel, and corporate earnings reports, we had no time to be bored this Ascension Thursday.
Taking a long weekend?
Wall Street brushed up against record highs yesterday. We’re not quite there yet, but let’s say if someone had told me on April 2 that the S&P would flirt with 6,000 points by May 29—all thanks to Nvidia and the AI squad—I wouldn’t have believed it. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones added 0.3%, the Nasdaq 0.4%.
But beware: behind this quiet rise, nervousness is definitely growing. Uncertainty still lurks in the shadows, ready to pounce—and luckily, interest rates gave markets a breather: the 7-year Treasury auction was a hit, attracting loads of investors for a yield of 4.19%. Result: the 10-year yield dropped to 4.41%, and Wall Street exhaled.
Now. Let me pause here for a second. We’re talking about the 7-year. WHO ACTUALLY CARES about the 7-year??? Sure, I can believe that the Treasury bond experts chat about it around the office coffee machine, but the rest of the world? Not so much. But it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter because right now, we desperately want to feel reassured about interest rates and demand for US debt issuance—so we’ll take anything. Even the 7-year.
Anyway, yesterday was what you’d call a “technical relief” — but I wouldn’t bet on a genuine rally full of conviction just yet.
In Europe, it was very quiet. The CAC 40 dipped slightly, as did the DAX — understandable, since Europe is taking the long weekend too, and so am I. The nervousness following the court ruling on US tariffs was still hanging in the air (more on that in a minute). And we took a moment to remember that Europe has benefited from capital inflows since the start of the year—but a single American slip-up can reshuffle the deck overnight. Maybe even over lunch.
Nvidia, the Reincarnated Messiah
If you weren’t around yesterday, if you saw and read nothing (not even the video I posted on the website), let me give you a quick BACK TO THE FUTURE… or maybe it’s BACK TO THE PAST.
Yes, Nvidia reported its quarterly earnings on Wednesday evening, and here’s what you need to know:
Revenue: $44.1 billion (+69% year-over-year)
Adjusted EPS: $0.96/share (vs. $0.93 expected)
Adjusted gross margin (excluding China): 71.3%
Data Center division: +73% to $39.1 billion
Gaming: $3.8 billion, up 33%
As for guidance, Wall Street was hoping for $45.9 billion next quarter. They got “only” $45 billion. Result: the grumblers grumbled… but the stock still gained +3% yesterday. Because we’re still talking about a company that prints cash faster than the Fed. And that’s without China.
Yes, because China is a problem. The ban on exporting H20 chips = –$2.5 billion in Q1 and –$8 billion forecasted for Q2. Jensen Huang didn’t mince words:
“Ignoring the largest pool of AI researchers in the world is suicidal. If it’s not us, it’ll be Huawei.”
Fortunately, there’s Blackwell—the new miracle chip. A computational beast capable of turning any factory into an “AI Factory.” The first units are already in testing, and global demand remains massive. Even without China, Nvidia is still a steamroller. And with a P/E of 28, it’s almost starting to look reasonable. Especially considering their historical P/E was 40.
The Tariff Saga Turns Legal
On Wednesday, May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade struck down Trump’s tariffs. The judges ruled that the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) cannot be used to slap on surcharges indiscriminately.
The outcome:
The 10% to 30% tariffs on thousands of foreign products must be lifted within 10 days.
Import refunds could even be required.
Wall Street surged in pre-market: +600 points for the Dow, +1.75% for the S&P… before cooling off.
The White House appealed — which, for now, has a suspensive effect. Their statement: “It’s not up to unelected judges to decide what constitutes a national emergency.” Translation: Trump is furious, preparing retaliation, and markets are waiting for the next episode. This ruling jeopardizes the financing of the $3.8 trillion “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Without tariffs, the debt explodes (even more), and investors rushed to the 7-year Treasury yesterday. I must admit, sometimes it’s hard to make sense of it all.
Internationally, there’s some smug satisfaction. Why sign trade deals with the U.S. if tariffs fall on their own? Trade agreements are now on hold, the dollar is strengthening, and uncertainty is spiking. And ship captains mid-ocean aren’t sure how they’ll be treated at port. Customs officers? They now spend more time rewriting forms than tracking down Escobar’s heirs.
Powell on the Frontlines
Wednesday night also brought the Fed Minutes from the last FOMC meeting, revealing a heavy atmosphere. The Fed is worried: sluggish growth, persistent inflation, lurking unemployment. People are talking about stagflation, and Trump’s tariffs could extend the chaos until 2027.
Powell hesitates. He doesn’t want to cut rates without more “data,” and to be honest, he’s terrified of inflation flaring back up — much more than of a recession or stagflation. Meanwhile, pressure’s building. Especially because…
On Thursday, Trump and Powell had a meeting. Or rather, they sat in the same room in a Wild West-style showdown — first one to flinch loses.
Trump said: “Cut rates, Jerome! We’re falling behind the rest of the world, and there’s no inflation!”
Powell fired back: “I decide based on data, not your tweets. And the data tells me that if you mess things up with these tariffs, inflation will come roaring back. And I DO NOT WANT THAT!”
As you can tell, the vibes are immaculate. Powell’s holding the line, Trump’s fuming and brooding. Everyone seems to be resisting him, and truth be told, he’s been unusually quiet these past few days. I don’t know if that’s a good sign — but I fear his comeback will be loud and dramatic.
And the markets? They’re nervous. Because if the Fed turns into a political tool, the whole system’s credibility could collapse. For now, it’s status quo. Rates remain between 4.25% and 4.5%, and we’re all waiting for the next twist. As of this morning, Powell’s still in place. No major scandals, no mysterious disappearance, no secret CIA Airlines flight to Guantanamo scheduled for the coming hours…
And This Morning?
In Asia, it’s all about… tariffs. Trump has pulled his tariffs back out of the drawer, a theme reignited by the appeals court. Result: panic in Asia. Markets don’t like uncertainty. China is tanking — trade negotiations are reportedly frozen according to Bessent, Hong Kong is down 1.5%, and Shanghai is slipping by 0.3%. But not to worry — Scott Bessent delivered the classic: “It’ll pick back up,” like an ex who still believes in the relationship. Then again, if Trump legally can’t impose tariffs anymore, why would the Chinese bother negotiating?
For now, the White House appeal has a suspensive effect on the judges’ ruling, so we’ll see what happens. Meanwhile, Beijing keeps complaining about U.S. restrictions on semiconductors, and Washington just added fuel to the fire by blocking even more exports. In Japan, inflation came in hotter than expected (again), and now a July rate hike is back on the table. The Nikkei is down 1.4%.
Oil is testing the $60 level again — nothing new under the sun.
Gold is sitting at $3,315,
Bitcoin is retreating to $106,000,
10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 4.41% — practically bliss in today’s world.
In Fresh News
Some companies that matter (a little less than Nvidia) reported earnings yesterday. DELL crushed it. Massive AI backlog of $14.4 billion. They blew past expectations: Q2 guidance at $29.5 billion versus $25.3 billion forecast. Result: the stock soared. But the CFO added a warning — AI orders are heavy, but irregular. The stock has cooled off but is still up 1.85%.
At MARVELL, results were decent, but doubts are creeping in. Their partnership with Amazon on Trainium chips is raising eyebrows, and rumors about losing contracts to Taiwan aren’t helping. Result: -3% after hours.
As for GAP, earnings beat expectations thanks to a brand refresh. But their warning about a $250–300 million hit from tariffs sent the stock plunging 15% after the bell. Even with only 10% of products made in China, protectionism is costly. And in a world where courts block tariffs on Wednesday and reinstate them on Thursday, planning anything becomes a nightmare.
In Other News…
Trump may ask the Supreme Court to overturn the tariff block as early as tonight. And I know some judges who might want to watch their backs for a while.
That’s where we’re at: Nvidia is carrying the world on its shoulders, Trump is gearing up for another tariff war, forcing lawyers to work around the clock, and I’m betting he won’t wait for the end of the moratoriums to shake things up again.
Meanwhile, Powell is meditating in a corner, and businesses are juggling uncertainty. Markets are going up, but not with much conviction. We’re walking a tightrope — no safety net — above an ocean of legal, political, geopolitical, and economic uncertainty. 2025 is shaping up to be quite the year.
Today’s Numbers — or Rather, THE Number of the Day
On the economic data front: we’ll get retail sales in Germany, the KOF economic barometer in Switzerland, and Spain’s CPI. In the U.S., we’ll get the Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.
But honestly? The entire financial world showed up to work today — well, those who actually came in — for one number: PCE — the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.
So we’ll wait, watch, and draw conclusions.
We’ll have a chance to talk about it again next week — starting Monday.
And let’s not forget: a thousand things can happen over the weekend, because apparently, in politics and geopolitics, no one ever sleeps.
Have a great weekend, and see you Monday!
