The week ahead is likely to be spectacular once again. And even if it turns out to be less volatile than usual — if by any chance it’s less volatile than usual — there will still be an avalanche of events for us to digest. As always, we’ll be talking about “trade deals” based on whatever information the White House decides to give us. But on top of that, we’ll have to deal with a mountain of quarterly earnings reports from major names like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta leading the charge. Not to mention the perfect combo of PCE, GDP, ISM numbers, and even employment data. By next Monday, we might even be looking at the Fed with a whole new perspective.

A Very Quiet Trump

I’ll admit, I don’t keep official statistics, but it feels like this Monday morning is the first calm Monday since Trump returned to power. A very relative calm, since futures are still down 0.6% because everyone’s “stressed” about the week ahead and it’s tempting to reduce risk with so many deadlines looming.
However, it’s worth noting one thing: Trump didn’t drop any bombshells over the weekend, and the main topic on his side remains tariffs with China. The President hinted that he had been in contact with Xi Jinping, but Scott Bessent stated that he “didn’t know” whether Trump had actually spoken with his Chinese counterpart. Basically, we’re being fed little treats to make us believe crazy things are happening in the tariff negotiations, but at the same time, since neither Trump nor China confirms any talks, you get the feeling they’re just stringing us along.

In any case, Trump was quieter than usual this weekend, even if plenty must have been discussed during the Pope’s funeral in Rome. One thing’s certain — according to Bessent again — several countries are in talks with the U.S. to find a way out of the tariff situation, and several announcements could be made this week.
That’s just perfect, because we really didn’t have much to deal with these next few days, and if, on top of Apple, Microsoft, and friends’ earnings, we also get a few signed agreements between the U.S. and Vietnam or New Zealand, it’ll spice things up a bit.
And who knows — maybe Trump will pull off a miracle with China using his left hand while solving the Ukraine war with his right.

The Fed and Supply Chains

Besides everything we need to analyze this week, there are two more things we should keep an eye on.
First, the supply chain issue. Over the past few hours, we’ve started hearing from some U.S. business leaders who are getting worried about what’s coming. As long as no agreement is reached with China, goods can no longer be imported from there, and some experts estimate that if no deal is struck by mid-May, we could face massive stock shortages on certain Chinese products.
Just last week, several container ships didn’t set sail because of prohibitive tariffs (Chinese cargo shipments to the U.S. have plunged 60%).
For now, there’s no immediate fire, but this could become an obsessive topic in the days ahead. Not to be underestimated. Because if we end up with a “COVID, season 2” kind of vibe in stores — with shortages, layoffs in transportation, logistics, and retail — it’s going to look like Black Friday… without anything to sell.
And we’re already almost in May, so there’s no time to waste.

Also, if you remember last week, there was talk of Powell possibly getting ousted from the Fed. Things settled at the last minute, but in that political-fiction scenario, Kevin Warsh was imagined as the new Caliph in place of the Caliph.
Well, guess what — Warsh spoke this weekend, and he seems very angry with Powell.
We don’t know if it’s frustration from not getting the job or if he’s keeping pressure on the Fed at Trump’s request, but his speech was relatively “violent.”
According to Warsh, the Fed talks way too much, meddles in everything, and is far too cozy with politicians who are draining the U.S. Treasury. In short, Warsh wants to bring the Fed back to the old-school style: “Shut up, do your job, protect the dollar’s value, and stop acting like a superhero.”

Back in the day, Fed bosses (Paul Volcker, Alan Blinder, & Co.) used to smoke cigars to avoid answering questions and refused to talk economics with journalists. Today, between press conferences, 2% inflation targets, and detailed economic forecasts, it’s become Disneyland in the Fed’s hallways and on CNBC.
For Warsh, that’s unacceptable.
He thinks Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell turned the Fed into a public debate club, and that this overexposure is partly why inflation spun out of control like a runaway barbecue after COVID.
He also blames Powell for letting public deficits run wild: “Okay to help during the pandemic, but afterwards, the tap should have been turned off — not organize a budgetary rave party.”
Warsh’s conclusion: the Fed shot itself in the foot, and it’s time for a strategic reset — no frills, no standing ovations, and no telling life stories on TV every two weeks.
He didn’t even give his opinion on rates or inflation — because, true to his philosophy, he believes the Fed shouldn’t be announcing its plans at all.

The Week Ahead

As I mentioned at the beginning of this column, beyond Trump’s antics around the world, we’re facing a very busy week in terms of economic data.
Nothing surprising for a typical earnings season.
But since we’re not in typical times, we’re going to have to ask ourselves a few questions because depending on what comes out, we might quickly have to revise our expectations about “what the Fed will do” — especially since the Fed meets next week.

Anyway, just looking at the economic calendar and using a little imagination, we could easily spin up a political-economic fiction scenario.

Let’s just take things step by step.
It all starts Tuesday.
We’ll get the JOLTS report and Consumer Confidence numbers.
It wouldn’t be surprising if consumer confidence were seriously depressed after everything we’ve been through, even if the SOX index rebounded 10% last week.
The tariff issue is still unresolved, and if stock shortages start to materialize, it’s easy to imagine a rather gloomy mood continuing.
On top of that, the JOLTS data could easily come in below expectations, since more and more people are willing to accept any job, while qualified positions are struggling to find takers…
We could therefore start the week with two numbers that clearly show the U.S. economy is no longer at its peak — and that employment is starting to slow down.

Then on Wednesday

We’ll get the ADP employment numbers, the PCE index, the US and European GDP figures, the Chicago PMI, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate.
Basically, if we assume that the economy is slowing down (with recession risks rising) and that employment will suffer, the ADP numbers should come in below expectations, GDP should show that the good times are over, and the PCE should reflect signs of weakness, as consumption has cooled off – at least until the shelves are completely empty.
On top of that, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow could confirm a recession starting in either the second or third quarter.

We’ll then wrap up the week with the Non-Farm Payrolls, which should confirm that the labor market is deteriorating.
If you put all these numbers together — and if this gloomy scenario plays out — we won’t have to look far to see a wave of ultra-dovish statements over the weekend, pushing the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later.
Of course, I don’t know for sure, and everything could swing the other way, but you have to admit: with everything coming up this week, it would be almost disappointing not to get a Netflix-worthy storyline — one that won’t end with a Happy Ending, but with a rate cut.
Which, let’s be honest, could still count as a Happy Ending these days.

A Monday in the Sun
This week is shaping up to be very heavy and complicated, with tons to analyze and interpret.
On top of that, Washington could throw anything at us at any moment.
We’ll need to stay sharp with every announcement, publication, and comment over the next few days.
Fortunately, we’ll have a “sort of” break for May 1st, giving us a chance to catch our breath – even though the US markets will remain open.
So let’s not waste too much energy this Monday morning and keep some ammo in reserve for the rest of the week.

As of now, Asia is mixed.
Japan is climbing, while the rest of the region isn’t doing much.
Oil is trading at $63.36, gold is at $3,307, and Bitcoin is still hovering around $94,000.
We’re starting the week quietly, but the next few days could bring big surprises – so stay covered, stay cautious with every White House statement, and be ready for anything.

Wishing you all a great day, happy Monday, and see you tomorrow for more adventures!!!