I think we’ve just reached a new peak in human stupidity – at least in the financial sector. What President Trump is doing right now is the biggest stock market manipulation in history. Honestly, I’m at a loss for words to describe what we’ve been witnessing in the markets for a few days already, but what happened yesterday goes beyond comprehension and shatters the credibility of global stock exchanges. Once again, after European markets closed, Trump did his little show and “offered” us the biggest surge in 24 years. The only word that comes to mind is: idiotic. Which, by the way, sums up the past 8 weeks pretty well.

Not much to say except stating the facts

Yesterday’s trading session had two distinct phases: Phase one – depression and a new wave of European panic, where everyone was freaking out over trade war escalation, recession risks, and the idea that under such circumstances, stock markets would never recover and we might be heading into an unprecedented economic nuclear winter. All major European markets ended deep in the red. A 3% drop in Germany, 3.34% in France, 2.75% in Italy, 2.22% in Spain, and 4.15% in Switzerland – which had, until recently, managed to fall less than others. Roche and Novartis down 6%, same for Sanofi, even though the pharma sector is still exempt from tariffs, BUT WE ALLOWED OURSELVES TO THINK that Trump might soon announce specific tariffs on non-American pharmaceutical companies.

So, European and Japanese markets spent the whole day catching up on Tuesday’s drop, since let me remind you that on TUESDAY, we had opened higher and stayed higher throughout the session because the Americans had shown the way by anticipating a TARIFF PAUSE. Remember this juicy detail – it’s about to get even better in just half a paragraph! You know the rest: Americans chickened out Tuesday evening when Trump declared there would be no tariff pause, implying that countries had no choice but to crawl at his feet and lick the leather of his loafers if they wanted any kind of deal with the US. So Wednesday morning, Europeans had no choice but to dump everything they had bought back on Tuesday, since tariffs were here to STAY!!! YES, YOU READ THAT RIGHT – yesterday, by the end of the day, while Europeans were heading home after another bloodbath on the markets… morale in the gutter, convinced we’d never get out of this… The atmosphere was grim and heavy.

And then Trump showed up (again)

While on our side of the Atlantic, depression was deep and worries were at their peak. Everyone trying to imagine an economic future weighed down by crushing tariffs and runaway inflation caused by those same tariffs. Then, Trump showed up. Again.

The President of all Americans decided to implement a 90-day moratorium on tariffs. He did this after European markets had already closed in the dumps. Which now gives a wonderful opportunity for European indexes to pedal upstream all throughout the session starting in a few hours. I don’t know if some people closed out yesterday with short positions, thinking the economic nuclear winter would last until Friday, but one thing’s certain – today’s going to be rough for them. Trump’s announcement sparked an INSANE rally: nearly 10% on the S&P500, 12% on the Nasdaq, and almost 8% on the Dow Jones. We hadn’t seen a session like that since 2001. 24 years! It’s been 24 years since the markets blew a fuse like they did last night. It felt like Trump had just announced that tariffs would never return, and that, just maybe, he’d start giving out gifts to countries just for being nice to America, while saying he no longer gave a damn about Making America Great Again – his only goal now being to push the S&P500 to 10,000 before the end of March.

I swear, watching the market and the performance of some tech stocks that were up over 20% during the session, I got the impression that tariffs were completely forgotten and that we had to rush back up to where we were on February 19th: at all-time highs. So this morning, I went online and tried to find synonyms for the word “idiotic” to describe the markets in a more creative way, but honestly, I’m out of words… We could say what happened yesterday is completely dumb – that works too. But I was hoping for something more flamboyant. Anyway, no point complaining because things are going up, but what worries me more is the violence of the moves. And above all, the total disconnect between the announcements and market reactions. The further we go, the more explosive the consequences of these announcements become. It’s worth noting that yesterday’s rebound was stronger than the one during COVID when they told us it was open bar, the governments would support us forever, and the money started pouring in the very next day…

The facts

Anyway: yesterday, US markets exploded and this morning, Europe is set to do the same. But seriously, what did the guy actually say to cause such a stampede? Did he announce that it was all over and that he’d hand out 1 Bitcoin to every American? Did he say he’d been wrong and was now going on a global tour with Air Force One to personally apologize to every world leader? Nope. He just suspended the retaliatory tariffs that had been announced on April 2nd. Which means the original 10% tariffs still remain, but the additional ones are off. For 90 days. And if, during those 90 days, the affected countries don’t come crawling to Washington to negotiate, they’ll get slapped with the full tariffs again. Or worse.

And it’s already started. Since the Chinese have shown “disrespect” to the Americans in recent days and have, let’s not forget, RIPPED OFF the US for years, Trump gave them a penalty: while the rest of the world gets a 90-day moratorium, China gets slapped with an extra 21%. Exports to the US will now be taxed at 125%! The global trade war between the US and everyone else has now become a duel between China and Trump. The Chinese confirmed they won’t stand down, and Trump confirmed he thinks “it’s all going to end with a super-deal for America.” In other words: “I’ve got all the time in the world, they’ll break eventually.” Meanwhile, Apple’s not happy… because, well, they still do business with China…

The Fake-Out of the Century

Whatever you may think, if you look closely at futures trading in the hour before Trump’s surprise announcement—surprise because he had ruled it out just the day before—you can clearly see that some people were better informed than others. One could reasonably wonder if there wasn’t a bit of market manipulation going on, and whether the President’s inner circle might be quietly building up a nice little retirement fund for themselves in four years. In any case, given the announcement and the market reaction that followed, some folks definitely had a good evening.

But hey, no worries—the SEC is on the case, and there’s no doubt that the culprits will be identified and brought to justice…

Nah, I’m kidding. As usual, no one will get caught, everyone will walk away clean, and the show will go on. Because, let’s not forget—in the stock markets, we’re all equal… but some are more equal than others. And for those guys, it’s just easier.

Back to Trump’s announcement and its global economic consequences

So, tariffs are now suspended for 90 days, just like Bill Ackman suggested. But the base 10% tariffs remain. China takes an extra 21% hit, and the President proudly announced that 75 countries have already reached out to Washington to “find a deal”—and he seems overjoyed that his little strategy is working better than expected.

It’s honestly fascinating to see how outraged the world was at first, only for most countries to sprint toward the White House to work something out. Anyway, the markets are happy, and politically, we’re about to see a whole bunch of folks puffing out their chests on TV to take credit for Trump’s U-turn. Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting, Merz, has already claimed, “It’s thanks to Europe’s firmness that Trump backed down.” We’ll see about that… I’m not even sure Trump could point to Germany on a map.

So now what?

Doesn’t matter what’s in the bottle as long as we’re drunk on it. The markets are in a good mood this morning, and the day should be decent—unless Trump drops another bomb, which, let’s be honest, is entirely possible.

Since last night’s rally, we’ve already heard some wild takes, and I doubt we’re done. But the best joke right now? That would be Goldman Sachs announcing they’ve “revised their base economic scenario.” Just three days ago, Wall Street’s finest had declared that, because of the tariffs, a U.S. recession in 2025 was inevitable. But after last night’s moratorium? No more recession. Apparently, these economic analysts—supposed to see further than the end of the trading week—are now forecasting the future like they’re doing high-frequency trading.

We’ve officially hit rock bottom. And the deeper we go, the more absurd it all gets. And clearly, the comedy show isn’t over yet.

So here we are—yesterday morning, the world was collapsing, and we were all doomed. This morning, tariffs are on pause, recession has been averted, and apparently, this might even boost growth. Most strategists spent the last week revising their S&P targets downward, and I wouldn’t be surprised if, over the next few days, we hear things like “Oops, it wasn’t us—it was the intern who misread the data,” or “We were hacked.”

Coffee & Croissants Conclusion

It’s going to take a few days to digest what happened yesterday—assuming (unlikely) that Donald Trump keeps quiet for a bit. Markets surged violently, and tomorrow’s another day. But brace yourself for more Trumpisms in the weeks ahead, and don’t bet on volatility settling down. Yesterday, the VIX swung from a high of 57.96% to a low around 31%. The Fear & Greed Index jumped from 3 to 17—still in fear territory.

And this afternoon? Inflation data comes out. But I bet no one will care. Why? “Well, you see, with tariffs being renegotiated, it’s hard to assign meaning to last month’s numbers!” Sure thing. If the people predicting a recession can change their minds every three days based on a Truth Social post, you can imagine how little weight they’ll give to inflation stats.

Still, even if Trump shuts up, we’ll keep talking about him. We’ll check in again tomorrow. As of now, U.S. futures are down 0.68%, digesting yesterday’s jump. Oil is up $6—because, of course, no tariffs = booming economy—WTI is trading around $67.10, gold is at $3,140, and Bitcoin is flirting with $82,000. Oh, and by the way, the FOMC Minutes were released last night.

Guess what? Nobody cares. I didn’t even see a single article about it this morning. Like I told you yesterday: no more macro, no more micro. It’s all geopolitics now—specifically, TARIFFS.

Have a great day, and see you tomorrow!