The Dow Jones just racked up its sixth straight winning session. Investors are still waiting for more clarity on tariffs, and yesterday, Lutnick hinted that the first “deal” had been signed with a country. We don’t know which one yet — rumors suggest India — but whatever, it was enough to push the indexes higher during the final hours of trading. Meanwhile, volatility has dropped below 25%, fear is fading, and so is interest in the markets. For now, we’re all just waiting for “Super Wednesday,” which is supposed to change everything — and will probably end up being just another ordinary Wednesday.
Another Day of Waiting
To be honest, yesterday’s session wasn’t anything special. Even though there was plenty to keep an eye on, we basically spent the whole day waiting for “the number” that would make our hearts race. Or an announcement that would stir things up again. Apart from Lutnick’s vague and unclear statement and Trump’s speech about his 100 days in office, we’re not much further along than before. European indices ended the day in mixed fashion, and the word that came up the most was: WAIT.
The only economic numbers released once again showed that consumer confidence is shaky — but hey, it was less bad than feared. In the US, the figure came in slightly below expectations, which somehow comforted the markets. Same story in Europe — Germany’s numbers were also less bad, which was good enough. We also got the JOLTS data — expected to show 7.49 million job openings, but came in 300,000 short. No big deal, we’ll take it.
Because once again, we’ve activated our strategy that helps us not panic anymore. That strategy we’ll call the “multi-level expectation method” — which helps us spin any number, no matter how crappy, into something digestible. Take the JOLTS data. The market’s “official” expectation is 7.49 million job openings. It comes in 300,000 under. But that’s okay! Because — when you ask an economist for a forecast, they never give you the real number. They give you the official number, while secretly keeping a completely different number in their head. Sounds stupid, I know — but there’s logic to it: it lets them claim they weren’t wrong, just that they didn’t reveal their real expectation.
It’s Dumb, I Know…
This might sound idiotic — and honestly, it kind of is — but that’s how the game works. You’ve got the public consensus — the one printed in the press and that we, poor mortals, use to judge whether a data point is “good” or “bad.” And then there’s the “hidden consensus,” which acts as a safety net. Like with JOLTS: the number came in under expectations, but hey — the real expectations were lower anyway, so it’s all “less bad,” and how nice to have a phantom number no one knows about so we can reassure ourselves that employment isn’t so terrible, and confidence is in the dumps, but — hey — it could’ve been worse!
So after this grand exercise in economic interpretation, investors figured they might as well wait for tomorrow. And since “tomorrow” is now today, that’s not too long to wait. So we shifted focus to quarterly earnings, which came out yesterday, and without diving into all the details, we can basically sort the reporting companies into two categories:
– Those with a vision for the future or who dare say that tariffs are manageable
– And those who have zero visibility, stuck in a fog so thick it feels like a sci-fi movie
Unsurprisingly, most fall into the second category. In the first group, you’ve got Coca-Cola, posting strong results and saying the future is totally manageable. On the flip side, UPS is in the tunnel — reporting revenue declines, feeling the brunt of the tariffs, and announcing 20,000 layoffs. Snap is clueless about its direction but thinks the road ahead will be long and bumpy. Same with Super-Micro, whose major client — possibly Nvidia — might be ditching them. Both stocks tanked after hours. So when it comes to earnings, there’s a bit of everything, as usual. Visibility sucks, the future looks cloudy, and things would be a lot simpler if we just got some clarity on those damned tariffs that are starting to really get on everyone’s nerves…
The 101st Day
So yes, everyone is waiting to see what happens TODAY — because it seems that now that we’ve branded this Wednesday as SUPER WEDNESDAY, we’re supposed to wake up in a different world tomorrow. You know how it goes: every time we await a big inflation or jobs report, we say, “This time, we’ll REALLY understand things better!” And then the number comes out, and it’s total nonsense, changing absolutely nothing. Well, this Wednesday might be just like that — boring as hell and a massive non-event.
But it’s already begun. This morning, the Chinese announced their economy is starting to cough — and it’s not just from Beijing smog.
The number dropped this morning:
Manufacturing PMI at 49.0
Below 50. That means contraction. And it’s the lowest level in two years. We could pretend to be shocked — but really, no. When you spend your days in a tariff war with the US, your factories slow down, and Xi Jinping is trying to do diplomacy while tightening things up internally — of course your economy starts sputtering. So here we have it: the first big red flashing warning light on the global economic dashboard, likely triggered by Donald’s trade policies. Can’t wait to see what the US GDP says later today.
Trump on Tour
And yesterday also marked Trump’s 100th day in office. He celebrated in Detroit, claiming his record was FABULOUS — even though, market-wise, it’s the worst since Nixon 50 years ago — and that the future looked rosy on the tax front, even though no one has a clue how he’ll do it, but everything’s great (according to TRUMP himself), even if all the numbers are flashing red and Americans are borderline panicked. The President still seems incredibly self-assured — and he took the chance to ONCE AGAIN take shots at Powell. What was it he said yesterday?
Oh yes:
“You’re not supposed to criticize Powell. You’re supposed to let him do his thing. But I know way better than him how to handle interest rates.”
And he added that the FED is doing “a really bad job.”
BUT THAT’S NOT A CRITICISM!
Nope. Trump’s rally yesterday was absolutely legendary — because 100 days deserves a celebration! But not with champagne. No. With insults, tariff threats, and a middle finger aimed squarely at Jerome Powell. The President was in full rockstar mode, delivering what he does best: talking for an hour and swinging a sledgehammer at everything in sight.
“We’re going to make deals. But we don’t have to. We’ve got the product.”
Translation: If you want to do business with the US, you’re going to pay through the nose — but we’d appreciate it if you smiled while doing it. He was supremely confident about negotiations with China, and nothing seems to throw him off course. I’m not sure if that changed anything for the markets, but at least it livened things up ahead of this Wednesday. And it also confirmed that the Powell conflict is still bubbling beneath the surface, and we’re probably not done seeing Trump fire off another SCUD…
In Conclusion
Lutnick made a deal, but we don’t know with whom or for how much.
Trump does Trump — lays into Powell with a flamethrower, and rehashes his tax promises.
Corporate earnings are “relatively not too bad,” but visibility is still poor — unless you’re Coca or Novartis.
Today we’ll get more info with US GDP, PCE, Chicago PMI, and the ADP employment numbers — the kind of day where we might learn inflation is under control, job growth is slowing, and growth just tripped over its own feet.
AND ON TOP OF THAT, we’ll hear what Meta and Microsoft think about the bright future of tech and tariffs.
Oh, and if you believe Pakistan, today’s also the day India will attack them — but no worries: two nuclear powers at each other’s throats is always a great way to warm up the room.
And today, then?
For now, Asian indices seem to have received the message and are quietly waiting to learn more about U.S. macroeconomic data. The Nikkei is doing nothing, neither is the Hang Seng, nor is China, despite its worrying PMI. Oil has just reacted on the principle that the “economic war” could influence its price, and the barrel has slipped back just below $60. Gold stands at $3,311, and Bitcoin is trading near $95,000.
As for the rest of the news, you’ve probably guessed that we are once again ultra-dependent on macro data and President Trump’s statements. Markets no longer seem willing to drop—at least, not as long as nothing worse than what we already know is on the horizon. Meanwhile, quarterly earnings are coming in. Last night, Starbucks reported a steeper-than-expected sales decline, with a 1% drop in Q2, weighed down by weakening demand in the U.S. and stagnation in China.
Despite a +2% international rebound, the company is seeing margins erode and earnings disappoint (41 cents versus the expected 49). CEO Brian Niccol’s “Back to Starbucks” plan is struggling to win over a more cautious clientele, in an uncertain economic and political climate. In Switzerland, we also need to talk about Novartis. Novartis came into 2025 like a bull on steroids: +12% in revenue, +23% in EBIT, +22% in net profit. They crushed all expectations… and raised their targets for the ninth time in a row. Forecasts are strong and the future looks bright—except no one seems to care, and the stock barely moved after the announcement. Sometimes you wonder what it takes to make a stock rise.
But wait, there’s more
And while UPS is looking gloomy and laying people off, it’s kind of nice to see Visa doing pretty well. I don’t know if this is a swan song or if people just can’t stop spending, but Visa delivered a solid quarter: +8% in payment volume, $5.4 billion in profit, and a juicy $30 billion share buyback program—because you’ve got to reward shareholders while the world burns. American consumers (who don’t trust the economy) keep spending like inflation doesn’t exist… except on pointless stuff (sorry, sellers of smart scooters). But be careful: Trump’s new tariffs could quickly kill the mood. For now, Visa is cashing in, Wall Street is smiling, and everyone is pretending everything’s fine. But behind the scenes, it’s starting to feel like a perfect storm… just before the hammer drops.
Let’s also mention Pfizer, which did better than expected on earnings but worse on sales—a kind of bittersweet win, Big Pharma-style. EPS rose to $0.92 (above consensus), but revenue dropped 8%. They’re maintaining full-year guidance, in a “move along, nothing to see here” mode, but analysts are beginning to raise eyebrows at the lack of post-Covid spark. Savings? $4.5 billion by end of 2024, with another $1.2 billion by 2027… Pfizer is becoming both a pill maker and a producer of cost-cutting PowerPoint decks. In short, it’s a quarter caught between two worlds: one foot in the past (Covid), another in future promises… with the back creaking under market expectations.
And finally…
With all that good news, we can head into Super-Wednesday with confidence and serenity, and start keeping a close eye on everything coming out. On the corporate side, we’re kicking off this morning with Airbus, Total, UBS, Stellantis, Crédit Agricole, plus Volkswagen and Schindler. Then over in the U.S., we’ll hear from Humana, Caterpillar, International Paper, Western Digital, and ADP. After the bell, it’s Meta and Microsoft taking center stage…
As for economic data, Europe kicks off with GDP numbers from France, Germany, and the Eurozone. We’ll also get CPI from France and Germany. Germany will additionally release employment figures. Then we head to the U.S. for today’s avalanche—yes, the much-anticipated avalanche—including: ADP jobs numbers, PCE, GDP, Chicago PMI, and oil inventories. And if someone still tells me we need to wait for Apple before knowing what to do, I’ll bite someone…
At the moment, futures are down 0.5%. It’s been 101 days with Trump in office and so far, things are going smoothly—we’re not bored for a second.
Have a great day, and we’ll meet again tomorrow for more adventures.
See you tomorrow.
